Recent U.S. midterm results delivered Democratic majorities in both chambers of Congress, establishing divided government for the remainder of the Trump term and aligning with the market's near-certain pricing on a Democratic sweep. Concurrently, indirect U.S.-Iran talks mediated by Qatar have stalled amid Iran's insistence on seven core demands—including sanctions relief, asset releases, and an end to the naval blockade—while U.S. defensive strikes on Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz occurred as recently as early November. These developments, alongside an expired June memorandum and repeated Iranian statements rejecting partial proposals, have driven trader consensus that any ceasefire arrangement will not extend through 2027. A sustained diplomatic breakthrough or verifiable de-escalation before the resolution window could still alter the outcome, though current evidence points to continued friction over nuclear issues, proxies, and navigation rights.