Elon Musk’s established pattern of high-volume posting on X continues to anchor trader sentiment around the 40-64 tweet range for the August 15-17 window, which currently holds a 71% implied probability. Daily averages near 20-40 posts in recent weeks, driven by quick replies, AI-related commentary such as Grok updates, and Tesla notes, make that bracket the clearest fit for a typical three-day stretch. Weekend dips can pull totals lower, supporting the 15.5% chance on under 40, while any sudden news cycle or controversy would be needed to push into the low-probability 65+ buckets. With the period already underway and no major catalysts visible, markets are pricing steady engagement rather than an outlier surge.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui40-64 71%
<40 16%
65-89 13%
90-114 <1%
$190,355 Vol.
$190,355 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
<40
16%
40-64
71%
65-89
13%
90-114
1%
115-139
<1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 71%
<40 16%
65-89 13%
90-114 <1%
$190,355 Vol.
$190,355 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
<40
$36,971 Vol.
16%
40-64
$20,628 Vol.
71%
65-89
$27,228 Vol.
13%
90-114
$37,771 Vol.
1%
115-139
$30,305 Vol.
<1%
140-164
$16,923 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$8,347 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$3,264 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$4,806 Vol.
<1%
240+
$4,113 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s established pattern of high-volume posting on X continues to anchor trader sentiment around the 40-64 tweet range for the August 15-17 window, which currently holds a 71% implied probability. Daily averages near 20-40 posts in recent weeks, driven by quick replies, AI-related commentary such as Grok updates, and Tesla notes, make that bracket the clearest fit for a typical three-day stretch. Weekend dips can pull totals lower, supporting the 15.5% chance on under 40, while any sudden news cycle or controversy would be needed to push into the low-probability 65+ buckets. With the period already underway and no major catalysts visible, markets are pricing steady engagement rather than an outlier surge.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$190,355Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s established pattern of high-volume posting on X continues to anchor trader sentiment around the 40-64 tweet range for the August 15-17 window, which currently holds a 71% implied probability. Daily averages near 20-40 posts in recent weeks, driven by quick replies, AI-related commentary such as Grok updates, and Tesla notes, make that bracket the clearest fit for a typical three-day stretch. Weekend dips can pull totals lower, supporting the 15.5% chance on under 40, while any sudden news cycle or controversy would be needed to push into the low-probability 65+ buckets. With the period already underway and no major catalysts visible, markets are pricing steady engagement rather than an outlier surge.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$190,355Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s established pattern of high-volume posting on X continues to anchor trader sentiment around the 40-64 tweet range for the August 15-17 window, which currently holds a 71% implied probability. Daily averages near 20-40 posts in recent weeks, driven by quick replies, AI-related commentary such as Grok updates, and Tesla notes, make that bracket the clearest fit for a typical three-day stretch. Weekend dips can pull totals lower, supporting the 15.5% chance on under 40, while any sudden news cycle or controversy would be needed to push into the low-probability 65+ buckets. With the period already underway and no major catalysts visible, markets are pricing steady engagement rather than an outlier surge.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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