Recent July 2026 CPI data, showing headline inflation easing only to 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, anchors trader expectations for no change at the October FOMC meeting with 71.5% implied probability. Softening labor conditions, including July job losses and 4.1% unemployment, temper rate-hike odds at 23.5% while keeping meaningful cuts below 7% combined. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, alongside upcoming August CPI and employment releases ahead of the September policy decision, sustains this pricing as markets weigh whether further data will shift the balance toward stability or a modest tightening.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiFed Decision in October?
Fed Decision in October?
No change 72%
25 bps increase 24%
25 bps decrease 4.4%
50+ bps decrease 1.6%
$640,771 Vol.
$640,771 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
4%
No change
72%
25 bps increase
24%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 72%
25 bps increase 24%
25 bps decrease 4.4%
50+ bps decrease 1.6%
$640,771 Vol.
$640,771 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$125,590 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$186,763 Vol.
4%
No change
$138,914 Vol.
72%
25 bps increase
$134,055 Vol.
24%
50+ bps increase
$55,448 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent July 2026 CPI data, showing headline inflation easing only to 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, anchors trader expectations for no change at the October FOMC meeting with 71.5% implied probability. Softening labor conditions, including July job losses and 4.1% unemployment, temper rate-hike odds at 23.5% while keeping meaningful cuts below 7% combined. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, alongside upcoming August CPI and employment releases ahead of the September policy decision, sustains this pricing as markets weigh whether further data will shift the balance toward stability or a modest tightening.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volume
$640,771Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 28, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent July 2026 CPI data, showing headline inflation easing only to 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, anchors trader expectations for no change at the October FOMC meeting with 71.5% implied probability. Softening labor conditions, including July job losses and 4.1% unemployment, temper rate-hike odds at 23.5% while keeping meaningful cuts below 7% combined. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, alongside upcoming August CPI and employment releases ahead of the September policy decision, sustains this pricing as markets weigh whether further data will shift the balance toward stability or a modest tightening.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$640,771Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 28, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July 2026 CPI data, showing headline inflation easing only to 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, anchors trader expectations for no change at the October FOMC meeting with 71.5% implied probability. Softening labor conditions, including July job losses and 4.1% unemployment, temper rate-hike odds at 23.5% while keeping meaningful cuts below 7% combined. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, alongside upcoming August CPI and employment releases ahead of the September policy decision, sustains this pricing as markets weigh whether further data will shift the balance toward stability or a modest tightening.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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