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Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election

icon for Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election

Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election

Fernando Dias da Costa 69.1%

Siga Batista 39.8%

Herculano Armando Bequinsa 4.2%

Mamadu Iaia Djaló 2.8%

Polymarket

$311,538 Vol.

Fernando Dias da Costa 69.1%

Siga Batista 39.8%

Herculano Armando Bequinsa 4.2%

Mamadu Iaia Djaló 2.8%

Polymarket

$311,538 Vol.

Fernando Dias da Costa

$47,748 Vol.

49%

Siga Batista

$21,444 Vol.

23%

Herculano Armando Bequinsa

$15,583 Vol.

4%

Mamadu Iaia Djaló

$18,181 Vol.

3%

Mário da Silva Júnior

$17,896 Vol.

2%

Honório Augusto Lopes

$17,560 Vol.

2%

José Mário Vaz

$21,417 Vol.

2%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló

$87,358 Vol.

1%

João Bernardo Vieira

$15,098 Vol.

1%

Gabriel Fernando Indi

$18,882 Vol.

1%

João de Deus Mendes

$16,237 Vol.

1%

Baciro Djá

$14,133 Vol.

<1%

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Trader consensus favors Fernando Dias da Costa at 48.7% implied probability for Guinea-Bissau's December 6 presidential election, reflecting his status as the leading challenger in the annulled November 2025 vote—where both he and incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló claimed victory before a military coup seized ballots and invalidated results. Dias da Costa's subsequent asylum in Nigeria and rejection of junta power-sharing in February bolster his opposition credentials amid transitional instability under Major-General Horta Inta-Naam. Siga Batista at 23.3% gains from prior withdrawal to support Dias and active campaigning, positioning as a potential runoff contender in the two-round system. No public polls have emerged since the January election rescheduling, leaving odds sensitive to ECOWAS pressures, candidate registrations, and any escalation in political violence reported through April.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volume
$311,538
Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 23, 2025
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Trader consensus favors Fernando Dias da Costa at 48.7% implied probability for Guinea-Bissau's December 6 presidential election, reflecting his status as the leading challenger in the annulled November 2025 vote—where both he and incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló claimed victory before a military coup seized ballots and invalidated results. Dias da Costa's subsequent asylum in Nigeria and rejection of junta power-sharing in February bolster his opposition credentials amid transitional instability under Major-General Horta Inta-Naam. Siga Batista at 23.3% gains from prior withdrawal to support Dias and active campaigning, positioning as a potential runoff contender in the two-round system. No public polls have emerged since the January election rescheduling, leaving odds sensitive to ECOWAS pressures, candidate registrations, and any escalation in political violence reported through April.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volume
$311,538
Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 23, 2025
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 12 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Fernando Dias da Costa" di 49%, diikuti oleh "Siga Batista" di 23%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 49¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 49% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election" telah menghasilkan $311.5K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Nov 6, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election," jelajahi 12 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election" adalah "Fernando Dias da Costa" di 49%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 49% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Siga Batista" di 23%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.