Recent numerical weather model consensus from sources including the GFS and local NWS guidance projects a high near 96–97°F for Austin on September 22, supported by partly cloudy skies, light northeast winds, and modest moisture that limits daytime heating. This places the event well below the 106°F threshold favored by traders at 48.5% implied probability, reflecting uncertainty in short-range model runs and the potential for rapid adjustments or localized extremes amid a September characterized by repeated above-normal highs. Historical averages near 90°F and a 103°F record provide context, while upcoming afternoon model updates and official NHC/NOAA briefings over the next 48 hours represent key catalysts that could shift the current market-implied distribution across the 90–105°F range.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Austin on September 22?
Highest temperature in Austin on September 22?
96-97°F 37%
98-99°F 37%
94-95°F 19%
102-103°F 19%
BARU
BARU
Sep 22, 2026
87°F or below
5%
88-89°F
5%
90-91°F
14%
92-93°F
11%
94-95°F
19%
96-97°F
37%
98-99°F
37%
100-101°F
17%
102-103°F
19%
104-105°F
9%
106°F or higher
6%
96-97°F 37%
98-99°F 37%
94-95°F 19%
102-103°F 19%
BARU
BARU
Sep 22, 2026
87°F or below
$0 Vol.
5%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
5%
90-91°F
$24 Vol.
14%
92-93°F
$7 Vol.
11%
94-95°F
$0 Vol.
19%
96-97°F
$0 Vol.
37%
98-99°F
$0 Vol.
37%
100-101°F
$0 Vol.
17%
102-103°F
$0 Vol.
19%
104-105°F
$0 Vol.
9%
106°F or higher
$0 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather model consensus from sources including the GFS and local NWS guidance projects a high near 96–97°F for Austin on September 22, supported by partly cloudy skies, light northeast winds, and modest moisture that limits daytime heating. This places the event well below the 106°F threshold favored by traders at 48.5% implied probability, reflecting uncertainty in short-range model runs and the potential for rapid adjustments or localized extremes amid a September characterized by repeated above-normal highs. Historical averages near 90°F and a 103°F record provide context, while upcoming afternoon model updates and official NHC/NOAA briefings over the next 48 hours represent key catalysts that could shift the current market-implied distribution across the 90–105°F range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 20, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$31Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 22, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 20, 2026, 3:56 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather model consensus from sources including the GFS and local NWS guidance projects a high near 96–97°F for Austin on September 22, supported by partly cloudy skies, light northeast winds, and modest moisture that limits daytime heating. This places the event well below the 106°F threshold favored by traders at 48.5% implied probability, reflecting uncertainty in short-range model runs and the potential for rapid adjustments or localized extremes amid a September characterized by repeated above-normal highs. Historical averages near 90°F and a 103°F record provide context, while upcoming afternoon model updates and official NHC/NOAA briefings over the next 48 hours represent key catalysts that could shift the current market-implied distribution across the 90–105°F range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$31Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 22, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 20, 2026, 3:56 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather model consensus from sources including the GFS and local NWS guidance projects a high near 96–97°F for Austin on September 22, supported by partly cloudy skies, light northeast winds, and modest moisture that limits daytime heating. This places the event well below the 106°F threshold favored by traders at 48.5% implied probability, reflecting uncertainty in short-range model runs and the potential for rapid adjustments or localized extremes amid a September characterized by repeated above-normal highs. Historical averages near 90°F and a 103°F record provide context, while upcoming afternoon model updates and official NHC/NOAA briefings over the next 48 hours represent key catalysts that could shift the current market-implied distribution across the 90–105°F range.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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