Recent forecast model runs from major centers indicate a maximum temperature near 13–14°C in Buenos Aires on August 22, driven by a cool southerly flow and limited daytime heating under partly cloudy skies during Southern Hemisphere winter. This aligns with climatological norms for late August but sits slightly below the long-term average high of around 15°C. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread, with some solutions allowing brief warming to 15°C if cloud cover decreases or winds shift. Trader consensus, reflected in the leading 14°C outcome at 38% implied probability, incorporates this model uncertainty and the narrow window before resolution, while lower probabilities for extremes underscore the low likelihood of significant deviations given stable synoptic patterns. Updated guidance from the National Meteorological Service of Argentina will provide the next key signal.