The Hong Kong Observatory’s current forecast for August 5 calls for sunny periods with very hot conditions and a maximum temperature near 33 °C in urban areas, a couple of degrees higher in the New Territories, driven by subtropical high pressure, light winds, and strong daytime solar heating under clear skies. Morning observations at 29 °C by 10 a.m. align with typical August climatology, where the seasonal baseline already sits slightly above normal owing to long-term warming trends and neutral-to-favorable ENSO conditions. Traders appear to be weighting finer-scale model consensus and urban heat-island effects that often cap official maxima one degree lower than initial guidance, pushing implied probability toward 32 °C while keeping 33 °C as a secondary outcome. Updated regional forecasts and any late-day convective development remain the key near-term variables that could shift these probabilities before the Hong Kong Observatory records the official daily peak.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 5?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 5?
32°C 57%
31°C 28%
33°C 13%
34°C 2.8%
$169,193 Vol.
$169,193 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
28%
32°C
57%
33°C
13%
34°C
3%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 57%
31°C 28%
33°C 13%
34°C 2.8%
$169,193 Vol.
$169,193 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
27°C or below
$7,308 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$5,723 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$15,174 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$38,144 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$18,975 Vol.
28%
32°C
$20,354 Vol.
57%
33°C
$19,681 Vol.
13%
34°C
$16,872 Vol.
3%
35°C
$13,056 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$7,548 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$6,358 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Hong Kong Observatory’s current forecast for August 5 calls for sunny periods with very hot conditions and a maximum temperature near 33 °C in urban areas, a couple of degrees higher in the New Territories, driven by subtropical high pressure, light winds, and strong daytime solar heating under clear skies. Morning observations at 29 °C by 10 a.m. align with typical August climatology, where the seasonal baseline already sits slightly above normal owing to long-term warming trends and neutral-to-favorable ENSO conditions. Traders appear to be weighting finer-scale model consensus and urban heat-island effects that often cap official maxima one degree lower than initial guidance, pushing implied probability toward 32 °C while keeping 33 °C as a secondary outcome. Updated regional forecasts and any late-day convective development remain the key near-term variables that could shift these probabilities before the Hong Kong Observatory records the official daily peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$169,193Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 5, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Hong Kong Observatory’s current forecast for August 5 calls for sunny periods with very hot conditions and a maximum temperature near 33 °C in urban areas, a couple of degrees higher in the New Territories, driven by subtropical high pressure, light winds, and strong daytime solar heating under clear skies. Morning observations at 29 °C by 10 a.m. align with typical August climatology, where the seasonal baseline already sits slightly above normal owing to long-term warming trends and neutral-to-favorable ENSO conditions. Traders appear to be weighting finer-scale model consensus and urban heat-island effects that often cap official maxima one degree lower than initial guidance, pushing implied probability toward 32 °C while keeping 33 °C as a secondary outcome. Updated regional forecasts and any late-day convective development remain the key near-term variables that could shift these probabilities before the Hong Kong Observatory records the official daily peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$169,193Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 5, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Hong Kong Observatory’s current forecast for August 5 calls for sunny periods with very hot conditions and a maximum temperature near 33 °C in urban areas, a couple of degrees higher in the New Territories, driven by subtropical high pressure, light winds, and strong daytime solar heating under clear skies. Morning observations at 29 °C by 10 a.m. align with typical August climatology, where the seasonal baseline already sits slightly above normal owing to long-term warming trends and neutral-to-favorable ENSO conditions. Traders appear to be weighting finer-scale model consensus and urban heat-island effects that often cap official maxima one degree lower than initial guidance, pushing implied probability toward 32 °C while keeping 33 °C as a secondary outcome. Updated regional forecasts and any late-day convective development remain the key near-term variables that could shift these probabilities before the Hong Kong Observatory records the official daily peak.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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