Recent numerical weather prediction models from major forecasting centers have converged on a daily maximum of 33°C for Shanghai on August 5, 2026, producing the overwhelming market-implied probability near 98%. This reflects typical late-summer subtropical conditions with moderate southerly flow, high humidity, and limited cloud cover expected to allow peak solar insolation without significant cooling from sea breezes or precipitation. Historical August climatology in the region shows frequent highs of 31–34°C, providing context for why traders assign negligible odds to deviations. Only a substantial revision in model runs—such as an unexpected increase in afternoon convection or a sharper-than-forecast onshore wind shift—could realistically alter the outcome before final observations are recorded.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 5?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 5?
33°C 99.4%
34°C <1%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
$110,736 Vol.
$110,736 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
99%
34°C
1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
33°C 99.4%
34°C <1%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
$110,736 Vol.
$110,736 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
28°C or below
$259 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,088 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$5,930 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$13,839 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$21,406 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$25,236 Vol.
99%
34°C
$15,262 Vol.
1%
35°C
$15,892 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$8,561 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$2,325 Vol.
<1%
38°C or higher
$939 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models from major forecasting centers have converged on a daily maximum of 33°C for Shanghai on August 5, 2026, producing the overwhelming market-implied probability near 98%. This reflects typical late-summer subtropical conditions with moderate southerly flow, high humidity, and limited cloud cover expected to allow peak solar insolation without significant cooling from sea breezes or precipitation. Historical August climatology in the region shows frequent highs of 31–34°C, providing context for why traders assign negligible odds to deviations. Only a substantial revision in model runs—such as an unexpected increase in afternoon convection or a sharper-than-forecast onshore wind shift—could realistically alter the outcome before final observations are recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$110,736Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 5, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models from major forecasting centers have converged on a daily maximum of 33°C for Shanghai on August 5, 2026, producing the overwhelming market-implied probability near 98%. This reflects typical late-summer subtropical conditions with moderate southerly flow, high humidity, and limited cloud cover expected to allow peak solar insolation without significant cooling from sea breezes or precipitation. Historical August climatology in the region shows frequent highs of 31–34°C, providing context for why traders assign negligible odds to deviations. Only a substantial revision in model runs—such as an unexpected increase in afternoon convection or a sharper-than-forecast onshore wind shift—could realistically alter the outcome before final observations are recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$110,736Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 5, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models from major forecasting centers have converged on a daily maximum of 33°C for Shanghai on August 5, 2026, producing the overwhelming market-implied probability near 98%. This reflects typical late-summer subtropical conditions with moderate southerly flow, high humidity, and limited cloud cover expected to allow peak solar insolation without significant cooling from sea breezes or precipitation. Historical August climatology in the region shows frequent highs of 31–34°C, providing context for why traders assign negligible odds to deviations. Only a substantial revision in model runs—such as an unexpected increase in afternoon convection or a sharper-than-forecast onshore wind shift—could realistically alter the outcome before final observations are recorded.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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