Latest numerical weather prediction models from major agencies converge on a 37°C maximum for Beijing on August 5, driving the overwhelming 97.5% market-implied probability. This aligns with early-August climatology, where regional heat and humidity under subtropical high pressure routinely produce highs near or above 35°C, supported by current observational trends and ensemble forecasts showing limited cooling from cloud cover or precipitation. Realistic challenges include late model updates introducing stronger northerly flow or enhanced convection that caps temperatures at 36°C or below, along with any discrepancies between official station readings and forecast grids near resolution thresholds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Beijing on August 5?
Highest temperature in Beijing on August 5?
37°C 99.5%
38°C <1%
39°C or higher <1%
29°C or below <1%
$38,716 Vol.
$38,716 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
100%
38°C
1%
39°C or higher
<1%
37°C 99.5%
38°C <1%
39°C or higher <1%
29°C or below <1%
$38,716 Vol.
$38,716 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
29°C or below
$308 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$1,024 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$1,381 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$2,340 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$4,393 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$4,207 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$5,232 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$5,358 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$6,075 Vol.
100%
38°C
$5,311 Vol.
1%
39°C or higher
$3,086 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models from major agencies converge on a 37°C maximum for Beijing on August 5, driving the overwhelming 97.5% market-implied probability. This aligns with early-August climatology, where regional heat and humidity under subtropical high pressure routinely produce highs near or above 35°C, supported by current observational trends and ensemble forecasts showing limited cooling from cloud cover or precipitation. Realistic challenges include late model updates introducing stronger northerly flow or enhanced convection that caps temperatures at 36°C or below, along with any discrepancies between official station readings and forecast grids near resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$38,716Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 5, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models from major agencies converge on a 37°C maximum for Beijing on August 5, driving the overwhelming 97.5% market-implied probability. This aligns with early-August climatology, where regional heat and humidity under subtropical high pressure routinely produce highs near or above 35°C, supported by current observational trends and ensemble forecasts showing limited cooling from cloud cover or precipitation. Realistic challenges include late model updates introducing stronger northerly flow or enhanced convection that caps temperatures at 36°C or below, along with any discrepancies between official station readings and forecast grids near resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$38,716Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 5, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction models from major agencies converge on a 37°C maximum for Beijing on August 5, driving the overwhelming 97.5% market-implied probability. This aligns with early-August climatology, where regional heat and humidity under subtropical high pressure routinely produce highs near or above 35°C, supported by current observational trends and ensemble forecasts showing limited cooling from cloud cover or precipitation. Realistic challenges include late model updates introducing stronger northerly flow or enhanced convection that caps temperatures at 36°C or below, along with any discrepancies between official station readings and forecast grids near resolution thresholds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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