Persistent high-pressure systems, clear skies, and light winds over central Spain are driving strong daytime solar heating in Madrid’s continental climate, positioning official AEMET and European model guidance for a maximum near 35–37°C on August 10. These conditions align with late-summer norms where average highs reach 32–34°C yet allow modest elevation from urban heat-island effects and minimal moisture advection. Recent short-range runs show tight consensus without incoming fronts, keeping trader-implied probabilities concentrated on 36–37°C outcomes as the most probable single values while acknowledging the narrow uncertainty band typical of 48-hour summer forecasts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Madrid on August 10?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 10?
37°C 44%
36°C 31%
38°C 19%
35°C 6%
BARU
BARU
Aug 10, 2026
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
2%
34°C
2%
35°C
6%
36°C
31%
37°C
44%
38°C
19%
39°C
3%
40°C
1%
41°C or higher
<1%
37°C 44%
36°C 31%
38°C 19%
35°C 6%
BARU
BARU
Aug 10, 2026
31°C or below
$77 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$34 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$10 Vol.
2%
34°C
$10 Vol.
2%
35°C
$149 Vol.
6%
36°C
$779 Vol.
31%
37°C
$1,611 Vol.
44%
38°C
$381 Vol.
19%
39°C
$59 Vol.
3%
40°C
$249 Vol.
1%
41°C or higher
$26 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high-pressure systems, clear skies, and light winds over central Spain are driving strong daytime solar heating in Madrid’s continental climate, positioning official AEMET and European model guidance for a maximum near 35–37°C on August 10. These conditions align with late-summer norms where average highs reach 32–34°C yet allow modest elevation from urban heat-island effects and minimal moisture advection. Recent short-range runs show tight consensus without incoming fronts, keeping trader-implied probabilities concentrated on 36–37°C outcomes as the most probable single values while acknowledging the narrow uncertainty band typical of 48-hour summer forecasts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volume
$3,384Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 10, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high-pressure systems, clear skies, and light winds over central Spain are driving strong daytime solar heating in Madrid’s continental climate, positioning official AEMET and European model guidance for a maximum near 35–37°C on August 10. These conditions align with late-summer norms where average highs reach 32–34°C yet allow modest elevation from urban heat-island effects and minimal moisture advection. Recent short-range runs show tight consensus without incoming fronts, keeping trader-implied probabilities concentrated on 36–37°C outcomes as the most probable single values while acknowledging the narrow uncertainty band typical of 48-hour summer forecasts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,384Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 10, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent high-pressure systems, clear skies, and light winds over central Spain are driving strong daytime solar heating in Madrid’s continental climate, positioning official AEMET and European model guidance for a maximum near 35–37°C on August 10. These conditions align with late-summer norms where average highs reach 32–34°C yet allow modest elevation from urban heat-island effects and minimal moisture advection. Recent short-range runs show tight consensus without incoming fronts, keeping trader-implied probabilities concentrated on 36–37°C outcomes as the most probable single values while acknowledging the narrow uncertainty band typical of 48-hour summer forecasts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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