**Forecast models and current atmospheric conditions point to a Tokyo minimum temperature near 24–25 °C on August 10, aligning with the market’s heaviest positioning on those outcomes.** Persistent extension of the Pacific High over Honshu has maintained above-normal warmth through early August 2026, with Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble runs showing overnight lows in the mid-20s °C amid mostly cloudy skies and light southerly flow. Scattered showers possible on the 10th may limit radiational cooling, keeping the daily minimum from dropping below 24 °C while also preventing extreme heat that would push it higher. Historical August climatology for central Tokyo supports typical lows of 24–26 °C under similar high-pressure regimes, and the absence of strong frontal passages or typhoon influences in the immediate forecast window reinforces trader consensus around the 24 °C level. Updated model runs and any JMA three-day bulletins over the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities if guidance trends cooler or warmer.