**Forecast consensus from Spain’s AEMET and supporting numerical models centers on a Madrid daily maximum of 38–39 °C on 18 August under a persistent high-pressure ridge that favors clear skies, strong solar heating, and light winds.** This setup aligns with typical late-summer conditions in the central Iberian Peninsula, where daytime highs commonly reach the upper 30s °C. The near-certain market pricing on 39 °C reflects the tight clustering of model runs and official guidance around that threshold, with minimal expected deviation. Realistic challenges remain limited but could include a faster-than-anticipated increase in afternoon cloud cover or a subtle shift in steering winds that caps the peak just below 39 °C; updated AEMET briefings and real-time observations through the afternoon will provide the final data for market resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Madrid on August 18?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 18?
39°C 100.0%
34°C or below <1%
35°C <1%
36°C <1%
$79,207 Vol.
$79,207 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
34°C or below
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
Yes
40°C
No
41°C
No
42°C
No
43°C
No
44°C or higher
No
39°C 100.0%
34°C or below <1%
35°C <1%
36°C <1%
$79,207 Vol.
$79,207 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
34°C or below
$1,174 Vol.
No
35°C
$1,622 Vol.
No
36°C
$3,419 Vol.
No
37°C
$7,040 Vol.
No
38°C
$15,109 Vol.
No
39°C
$23,767 Vol.
Yes
40°C
$15,411 Vol.
No
41°C
$7,595 Vol.
No
42°C
$3,140 Vol.
No
43°C
$330 Vol.
No
44°C or higher
$599 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from Spain’s AEMET and supporting numerical models centers on a Madrid daily maximum of 38–39 °C on 18 August under a persistent high-pressure ridge that favors clear skies, strong solar heating, and light winds.** This setup aligns with typical late-summer conditions in the central Iberian Peninsula, where daytime highs commonly reach the upper 30s °C. The near-certain market pricing on 39 °C reflects the tight clustering of model runs and official guidance around that threshold, with minimal expected deviation. Realistic challenges remain limited but could include a faster-than-anticipated increase in afternoon cloud cover or a subtle shift in steering winds that caps the peak just below 39 °C; updated AEMET briefings and real-time observations through the afternoon will provide the final data for market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$79,207Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from Spain’s AEMET and supporting numerical models centers on a Madrid daily maximum of 38–39 °C on 18 August under a persistent high-pressure ridge that favors clear skies, strong solar heating, and light winds.** This setup aligns with typical late-summer conditions in the central Iberian Peninsula, where daytime highs commonly reach the upper 30s °C. The near-certain market pricing on 39 °C reflects the tight clustering of model runs and official guidance around that threshold, with minimal expected deviation. Realistic challenges remain limited but could include a faster-than-anticipated increase in afternoon cloud cover or a subtle shift in steering winds that caps the peak just below 39 °C; updated AEMET briefings and real-time observations through the afternoon will provide the final data for market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$79,207Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
**Forecast consensus from Spain’s AEMET and supporting numerical models centers on a Madrid daily maximum of 38–39 °C on 18 August under a persistent high-pressure ridge that favors clear skies, strong solar heating, and light winds.** This setup aligns with typical late-summer conditions in the central Iberian Peninsula, where daytime highs commonly reach the upper 30s °C. The near-certain market pricing on 39 °C reflects the tight clustering of model runs and official guidance around that threshold, with minimal expected deviation. Realistic challenges remain limited but could include a faster-than-anticipated increase in afternoon cloud cover or a subtle shift in steering winds that caps the peak just below 39 °C; updated AEMET briefings and real-time observations through the afternoon will provide the final data for market resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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