Recent model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF points to a maximum of 27–28 °C in Madrid on August 25, driven by southwesterly flow advecting cooler Atlantic air and increased cloud cover that limits surface insolation. This follows a brief heat spike on August 23 and aligns with observed trends toward moderated late-summer temperatures, with afternoon peaks expected near 80–82 °F (27–28 °C) under partly cloudy conditions. The market-implied probabilities, led by 28 °C at 44 %, reflect trader assessment of these stable forecast signals, while lower odds for 29–30 °C or below 27 °C account for minor model spread and potential timing shifts in cloud or wind patterns ahead of final observations.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Madrid on August 25?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 25?
28°C 44%
29°C 28%
27°C 19%
30°C 7%
BARU
BARU
Aug 25, 2026
24°C or below
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
5%
27°C
19%
28°C
44%
29°C
28%
30°C
7%
31°C
2%
32°C
1%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
<1%
28°C 44%
29°C 28%
27°C 19%
30°C 7%
BARU
BARU
Aug 25, 2026
24°C or below
$174 Vol.
1%
25°C
$14 Vol.
1%
26°C
$395 Vol.
5%
27°C
$361 Vol.
19%
28°C
$363 Vol.
44%
29°C
$179 Vol.
28%
30°C
$18 Vol.
7%
31°C
$90 Vol.
2%
32°C
$46 Vol.
1%
33°C
$5 Vol.
2%
34°C or higher
$125 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF points to a maximum of 27–28 °C in Madrid on August 25, driven by southwesterly flow advecting cooler Atlantic air and increased cloud cover that limits surface insolation. This follows a brief heat spike on August 23 and aligns with observed trends toward moderated late-summer temperatures, with afternoon peaks expected near 80–82 °F (27–28 °C) under partly cloudy conditions. The market-implied probabilities, led by 28 °C at 44 %, reflect trader assessment of these stable forecast signals, while lower odds for 29–30 °C or below 27 °C account for minor model spread and potential timing shifts in cloud or wind patterns ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$1,770Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 25, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF points to a maximum of 27–28 °C in Madrid on August 25, driven by southwesterly flow advecting cooler Atlantic air and increased cloud cover that limits surface insolation. This follows a brief heat spike on August 23 and aligns with observed trends toward moderated late-summer temperatures, with afternoon peaks expected near 80–82 °F (27–28 °C) under partly cloudy conditions. The market-implied probabilities, led by 28 °C at 44 %, reflect trader assessment of these stable forecast signals, while lower odds for 29–30 °C or below 27 °C account for minor model spread and potential timing shifts in cloud or wind patterns ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,770Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 25, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF points to a maximum of 27–28 °C in Madrid on August 25, driven by southwesterly flow advecting cooler Atlantic air and increased cloud cover that limits surface insolation. This follows a brief heat spike on August 23 and aligns with observed trends toward moderated late-summer temperatures, with afternoon peaks expected near 80–82 °F (27–28 °C) under partly cloudy conditions. The market-implied probabilities, led by 28 °C at 44 %, reflect trader assessment of these stable forecast signals, while lower odds for 29–30 °C or below 27 °C account for minor model spread and potential timing shifts in cloud or wind patterns ahead of final observations.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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