Current forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Spain’s AEMET indicate a daytime maximum near 22–23°C in Madrid on May 17 under a stable high-pressure ridge that promotes clear skies and light northerly flow across the central Iberian Peninsula. This setup limits strong afternoon heating despite typical May solar insolation, while modest surface moisture and a shallow boundary layer keep temperatures from climbing further. Recent model runs show little divergence on peak values, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 22°C at 40.5% and 23°C at 25.5% implied probability. Traders are monitoring real-time observations at Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport through the afternoon for any late adjustments driven by local wind shifts or cloud cover.