Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast uncertainty from AEMET and ECMWF ensemble guidance, with maxima clustering around 22–24°C for May 17 amid a transitional weather pattern featuring a weakening Atlantic frontal system and building high pressure over Iberia. Recent 12Z model runs show slight divergences: ECMWF leaning toward 23°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds aiding diurnal heating, while GFS hints at 22°C if lingering stratocumulus suppresses peaks. Historical mid-May highs average 23°C in Madrid, with urban effects adding 1–2°C; current soil moisture from early-month rains tempers extremes. New 00Z runs and AEMET intraday updates expected soon could sharpen odds, as cloud cover timing remains the key differentiator.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Madrid on May 17?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 17?
22°C 33%
21°C 32%
23°C 26%
24°C 14%
BARU
BARU
May 17, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
2%
20°C
7%
21°C
32%
22°C
33%
23°C
26%
24°C
14%
25°C
2%
26°C
1%
27°C or higher
<1%
22°C 33%
21°C 32%
23°C 26%
24°C 14%
BARU
BARU
May 17, 2026
17°C or below
$210 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$114 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$140 Vol.
2%
20°C
$261 Vol.
7%
21°C
$523 Vol.
32%
22°C
$324 Vol.
33%
23°C
$248 Vol.
26%
24°C
$259 Vol.
14%
25°C
$99 Vol.
2%
26°C
$123 Vol.
1%
27°C or higher
$141 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast uncertainty from AEMET and ECMWF ensemble guidance, with maxima clustering around 22–24°C for May 17 amid a transitional weather pattern featuring a weakening Atlantic frontal system and building high pressure over Iberia. Recent 12Z model runs show slight divergences: ECMWF leaning toward 23°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds aiding diurnal heating, while GFS hints at 22°C if lingering stratocumulus suppresses peaks. Historical mid-May highs average 23°C in Madrid, with urban effects adding 1–2°C; current soil moisture from early-month rains tempers extremes. New 00Z runs and AEMET intraday updates expected soon could sharpen odds, as cloud cover timing remains the key differentiator.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$2,443Tanggal Berakhir
May 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast uncertainty from AEMET and ECMWF ensemble guidance, with maxima clustering around 22–24°C for May 17 amid a transitional weather pattern featuring a weakening Atlantic frontal system and building high pressure over Iberia. Recent 12Z model runs show slight divergences: ECMWF leaning toward 23°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds aiding diurnal heating, while GFS hints at 22°C if lingering stratocumulus suppresses peaks. Historical mid-May highs average 23°C in Madrid, with urban effects adding 1–2°C; current soil moisture from early-month rains tempers extremes. New 00Z runs and AEMET intraday updates expected soon could sharpen odds, as cloud cover timing remains the key differentiator.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,443Tanggal Berakhir
May 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast uncertainty from AEMET and ECMWF ensemble guidance, with maxima clustering around 22–24°C for May 17 amid a transitional weather pattern featuring a weakening Atlantic frontal system and building high pressure over Iberia. Recent 12Z model runs show slight divergences: ECMWF leaning toward 23°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds aiding diurnal heating, while GFS hints at 22°C if lingering stratocumulus suppresses peaks. Historical mid-May highs average 23°C in Madrid, with urban effects adding 1–2°C; current soil moisture from early-month rains tempers extremes. New 00Z runs and AEMET intraday updates expected soon could sharpen odds, as cloud cover timing remains the key differentiator.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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