Persistent heatwave conditions over northern Italy, driven by a stable anticyclonic pattern, position 34–36°C as the dominant range for Milan's maximum temperature on August 13. ECMWF ensemble guidance and Italian Meteorological Service forecasts converge on peak daytime highs near 34–35°C under sunny skies and light easterly winds, which promote surface heating above the long-term August average of 28–30°C. Minor uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing, urban heat-island effects within the city, and possible thin high cloud cover explain the tight spread between the leading 35°C (53.5%) and 34°C (22.5%) outcomes, while limited model spread keeps extremes below 32°C or above 37°C at low implied probabilities. Updated short-range runs over the next 24–48 hours will refine these consensus projections before market resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Milan on August 13?
Highest temperature in Milan on August 13?
35°C 54%
34°C 23%
36°C 18%
33°C 3%
BARU
BARU
Aug 13, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
2%
33°C
3%
34°C
23%
35°C
54%
36°C
18%
37°C
3%
38°C
1%
39°C or higher
<1%
35°C 54%
34°C 23%
36°C 18%
33°C 3%
BARU
BARU
Aug 13, 2026
29°C or below
$356 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$312 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$308 Vol.
1%
32°C
$382 Vol.
2%
33°C
$645 Vol.
3%
34°C
$1,050 Vol.
23%
35°C
$1,843 Vol.
54%
36°C
$839 Vol.
18%
37°C
$393 Vol.
3%
38°C
$544 Vol.
1%
39°C or higher
$239 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent heatwave conditions over northern Italy, driven by a stable anticyclonic pattern, position 34–36°C as the dominant range for Milan's maximum temperature on August 13. ECMWF ensemble guidance and Italian Meteorological Service forecasts converge on peak daytime highs near 34–35°C under sunny skies and light easterly winds, which promote surface heating above the long-term August average of 28–30°C. Minor uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing, urban heat-island effects within the city, and possible thin high cloud cover explain the tight spread between the leading 35°C (53.5%) and 34°C (22.5%) outcomes, while limited model spread keeps extremes below 32°C or above 37°C at low implied probabilities. Updated short-range runs over the next 24–48 hours will refine these consensus projections before market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$6,912Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 13, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent heatwave conditions over northern Italy, driven by a stable anticyclonic pattern, position 34–36°C as the dominant range for Milan's maximum temperature on August 13. ECMWF ensemble guidance and Italian Meteorological Service forecasts converge on peak daytime highs near 34–35°C under sunny skies and light easterly winds, which promote surface heating above the long-term August average of 28–30°C. Minor uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing, urban heat-island effects within the city, and possible thin high cloud cover explain the tight spread between the leading 35°C (53.5%) and 34°C (22.5%) outcomes, while limited model spread keeps extremes below 32°C or above 37°C at low implied probabilities. Updated short-range runs over the next 24–48 hours will refine these consensus projections before market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,912Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 13, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent heatwave conditions over northern Italy, driven by a stable anticyclonic pattern, position 34–36°C as the dominant range for Milan's maximum temperature on August 13. ECMWF ensemble guidance and Italian Meteorological Service forecasts converge on peak daytime highs near 34–35°C under sunny skies and light easterly winds, which promote surface heating above the long-term August average of 28–30°C. Minor uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing, urban heat-island effects within the city, and possible thin high cloud cover explain the tight spread between the leading 35°C (53.5%) and 34°C (22.5%) outcomes, while limited model spread keeps extremes below 32°C or above 37°C at low implied probabilities. Updated short-range runs over the next 24–48 hours will refine these consensus projections before market resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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