Recent Houthi threats of a targeted naval blockade on Saudi-linked shipping, announced in late July, combined with missile and drone incidents in early August, have driven rerouting and insurance adjustments that suppress Bab el-Mandeb transits. Daily crossings have fluctuated between roughly 28–40 vessels amid war-risk premium spikes and tanker diversions, translating to weekly totals clustered near 200. Trader sentiment remains balanced across the 180–219 and 220+ buckets because baseline volumes have stabilized post-initial shock yet remain vulnerable to further escalation or selective exemptions; the narrow spreads reflect uncertainty over whether incremental risk mitigation or renewed attacks will tip the count above or below key thresholds before resolution.