Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and the associated naval blockade remain the dominant driver behind Polymarket's 73.5% implied probability for 25-49 Strait of Hormuz transits during the August 10-16 week. Daily commercial crossings have held near multi-month lows of 5-13 vessels—versus the pre-February 2026 baseline of 60-140—reflecting elevated war-risk insurance premiums, reported attacks on ADNOC-linked tankers on August 13, and stalled diplomatic efforts. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, incorporates the latest Kpler and AIS data showing traffic at roughly 3-7% of normal throughput amid persistent Iranian assertions of control. Key near-term swing factors include any verified de-escalation or further incidents that could shift weekly aggregates toward the 26% probability assigned to fewer than 25 transits.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 10?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 10?
25-49 74%
<25 26%
50-74 <1%
75-99 <1%
$33,864 Vol.
$33,864 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
<25
26%
25-49
74%
50-74
1%
75-99
<1%
100+
<1%
25-49 74%
<25 26%
50-74 <1%
75-99 <1%
$33,864 Vol.
$33,864 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
<25
$12,829 Vol.
26%
25-49
$13,200 Vol.
74%
50-74
$4,975 Vol.
1%
75-99
$1,663 Vol.
<1%
100+
$1,197 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and the associated naval blockade remain the dominant driver behind Polymarket's 73.5% implied probability for 25-49 Strait of Hormuz transits during the August 10-16 week. Daily commercial crossings have held near multi-month lows of 5-13 vessels—versus the pre-February 2026 baseline of 60-140—reflecting elevated war-risk insurance premiums, reported attacks on ADNOC-linked tankers on August 13, and stalled diplomatic efforts. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, incorporates the latest Kpler and AIS data showing traffic at roughly 3-7% of normal throughput amid persistent Iranian assertions of control. Key near-term swing factors include any verified de-escalation or further incidents that could shift weekly aggregates toward the 26% probability assigned to fewer than 25 transits.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$33,864Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and the associated naval blockade remain the dominant driver behind Polymarket's 73.5% implied probability for 25-49 Strait of Hormuz transits during the August 10-16 week. Daily commercial crossings have held near multi-month lows of 5-13 vessels—versus the pre-February 2026 baseline of 60-140—reflecting elevated war-risk insurance premiums, reported attacks on ADNOC-linked tankers on August 13, and stalled diplomatic efforts. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, incorporates the latest Kpler and AIS data showing traffic at roughly 3-7% of normal throughput amid persistent Iranian assertions of control. Key near-term swing factors include any verified de-escalation or further incidents that could shift weekly aggregates toward the 26% probability assigned to fewer than 25 transits.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$33,864Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and the associated naval blockade remain the dominant driver behind Polymarket's 73.5% implied probability for 25-49 Strait of Hormuz transits during the August 10-16 week. Daily commercial crossings have held near multi-month lows of 5-13 vessels—versus the pre-February 2026 baseline of 60-140—reflecting elevated war-risk insurance premiums, reported attacks on ADNOC-linked tankers on August 13, and stalled diplomatic efforts. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, incorporates the latest Kpler and AIS data showing traffic at roughly 3-7% of normal throughput amid persistent Iranian assertions of control. Key near-term swing factors include any verified de-escalation or further incidents that could shift weekly aggregates toward the 26% probability assigned to fewer than 25 transits.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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