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icon for Berapa banyak SpaceX Starship yang diluncurkan mencapai ruang angkasa pada tahun 2026?
Iklim & Sains·SpaceX

Berapa banyak SpaceX Starship yang diluncurkan mencapai ruang angkasa pada tahun 2026?

icon for Berapa banyak SpaceX Starship yang diluncurkan mencapai ruang angkasa pada tahun 2026?
Iklim & Sains·SpaceX

Berapa banyak SpaceX Starship yang diluncurkan mencapai ruang angkasa pada tahun 2026?

Dec 31

Dec 31

<5 51%

5-6 32%

7-8 4.1%

>16 4.1%

Polymarket

$450,036 Vol.

<5 51%

5-6 32%

7-8 4.1%

>16 4.1%

Polymarket

$450,036 Vol.

<5

$90,622 Vol.

51%

5-6

$108,327 Vol.

26%

7-8

$152,207 Vol.

4%

9-10

$55,882 Vol.

2%

11-12

$3,765 Vol.

2%

13-14

$4,747 Vol.

1%

15-16

$25,181 Vol.

2%

>16

$9,304 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's debut of the Starship V3 architecture on the upcoming Flight 12 test, now targeted for May 19 from the new Starbase Pad 2, anchors trader sentiment around fewer than five successful space-reaching launches for the full year. The vehicle remains in an extended test phase after eleven prior flights through late 2025, with V3 introducing redesigned Raptor 3 engines, increased propellant capacity, and rapid reusability goals that have yet to demonstrate orbital insertion or booster catch at scale. Regulatory constraints, including the FAA's 44-launch annual cap, plus historical cadence limits and the need for iterative fixes on each attempt, sustain the market's strong lean toward modest totals. Successful early V3 missions could unlock a steeper ramp later in 2026, but traders appear to price in continued technical and approval hurdles.

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.

The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$450,036
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's debut of the Starship V3 architecture on the upcoming Flight 12 test, now targeted for May 19 from the new Starbase Pad 2, anchors trader sentiment around fewer than five successful space-reaching launches for the full year. The vehicle remains in an extended test phase after eleven prior flights through late 2025, with V3 introducing redesigned Raptor 3 engines, increased propellant capacity, and rapid reusability goals that have yet to demonstrate orbital insertion or booster catch at scale. Regulatory constraints, including the FAA's 44-launch annual cap, plus historical cadence limits and the need for iterative fixes on each attempt, sustain the market's strong lean toward modest totals. Successful early V3 missions could unlock a steeper ramp later in 2026, but traders appear to price in continued technical and approval hurdles.

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.

The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$450,036
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Berapa banyak SpaceX Starship yang diluncurkan mencapai ruang angkasa pada tahun 2026?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 8 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "<5" di 51%, diikuti oleh "5-6" di 26%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 51¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 51% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Berapa banyak SpaceX Starship yang diluncurkan mencapai ruang angkasa pada tahun 2026?" telah menghasilkan $450K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Dec 12, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Berapa banyak SpaceX Starship yang diluncurkan mencapai ruang angkasa pada tahun 2026?," jelajahi 8 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Berapa banyak SpaceX Starship yang diluncurkan mencapai ruang angkasa pada tahun 2026?" adalah "<5" di 51%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 51% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "5-6" di 26%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Berapa banyak SpaceX Starship yang diluncurkan mencapai ruang angkasa pada tahun 2026?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.