Iran's political landscape in mid-June 2026 reflects consolidation following the February–May war with the United States and Israel, including the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, establishment of an interim leadership council, and a June 14 memorandum of understanding aimed at formalizing a ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Regime institutions, led by IRGC figures such as Major General Ahmad Vahidi, have maintained control amid earlier protests and factional tensions, while negotiations advance toward a signing on June 19. These developments, combined with the absence of verified recent coup-related activity, underpin trader consensus on low near-term risk of an internal power seizure. A sudden breakdown in the emerging diplomatic framework or escalation in internal factional disputes remains among the limited developments that could alter the assessment before the June 30 window closes.
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Dec 31, 2026
December 31
6%
$2,041,256 Vol.
December 31
$30 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's political landscape in mid-June 2026 reflects consolidation following the February–May war with the United States and Israel, including the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, establishment of an interim leadership council, and a June 14 memorandum of understanding aimed at formalizing a ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Regime institutions, led by IRGC figures such as Major General Ahmad Vahidi, have maintained control amid earlier protests and factional tensions, while negotiations advance toward a signing on June 19. These developments, combined with the absence of verified recent coup-related activity, underpin trader consensus on low near-term risk of an internal power seizure. A sudden breakdown in the emerging diplomatic framework or escalation in internal factional disputes remains among the limited developments that could alter the assessment before the June 30 window closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,041,256Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's political landscape in mid-June 2026 reflects consolidation following the February–May war with the United States and Israel, including the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, establishment of an interim leadership council, and a June 14 memorandum of understanding aimed at formalizing a ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Regime institutions, led by IRGC figures such as Major General Ahmad Vahidi, have maintained control amid earlier protests and factional tensions, while negotiations advance toward a signing on June 19. These developments, combined with the absence of verified recent coup-related activity, underpin trader consensus on low near-term risk of an internal power seizure. A sudden breakdown in the emerging diplomatic framework or escalation in internal factional disputes remains among the limited developments that could alter the assessment before the June 30 window closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,041,256Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's political landscape in mid-June 2026 reflects consolidation following the February–May war with the United States and Israel, including the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, establishment of an interim leadership council, and a June 14 memorandum of understanding aimed at formalizing a ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Regime institutions, led by IRGC figures such as Major General Ahmad Vahidi, have maintained control amid earlier protests and factional tensions, while negotiations advance toward a signing on June 19. These developments, combined with the absence of verified recent coup-related activity, underpin trader consensus on low near-term risk of an internal power seizure. A sudden breakdown in the emerging diplomatic framework or escalation in internal factional disputes remains among the limited developments that could alter the assessment before the June 30 window closes.
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