**Trader consensus assigns an 85.3% probability to fewer than five posts by Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei’s official X account (@MKhamenei_ir) during the August 28–September 4 window.** This reflects the account’s established pattern of infrequent, occasion-driven activity rather than regular daily posting. The current Supreme Leader’s verified profile, opened in March 2026, typically releases formal statements tied to religious observances, government milestones, or policy announcements, with extended periods of silence in between. In the opening days of the resolution period, the account issued a cluster of messages around Government Week and ahead of Islamic Unity Week, including several on August 28 and one on August 29. Historical volume on the handle and comparable official Iranian leadership accounts shows that such bursts are the exception; sustained output above five messages in a single week remains rare absent major escalations or scheduled events. With the remainder of the interval offering limited additional triggers, market pricing aligns with this low baseline frequency.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiKhamenei # posts August 28 - September 4, 2026?
Khamenei # posts August 28 - September 4, 2026?
<5 85.3%
10-14 6.4%
5-9 5%
15-19 2.0%
BARU
BARU
Sep 4, 2026
<5
85%
5-9
5%
10-14
8%
15-19
2%
20-24
1%
25-29
2%
30-34
2%
35-39
1%
40-44
1%
45-49
<1%
50-54
1%
55-59
1%
60+
<1%
<5 85.3%
10-14 6.4%
5-9 5%
15-19 2.0%
BARU
BARU
Sep 4, 2026
<5
$2,849 Vol.
85%
5-9
$677 Vol.
5%
10-14
$361 Vol.
8%
15-19
$225 Vol.
2%
20-24
$251 Vol.
1%
25-29
$214 Vol.
2%
30-34
$201 Vol.
2%
35-39
$213 Vol.
1%
40-44
$237 Vol.
1%
45-49
$171 Vol.
<1%
50-54
$246 Vol.
1%
55-59
$263 Vol.
1%
60+
$159 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 28, 12:00 PM ET and September 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Trader consensus assigns an 85.3% probability to fewer than five posts by Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei’s official X account (@MKhamenei_ir) during the August 28–September 4 window.** This reflects the account’s established pattern of infrequent, occasion-driven activity rather than regular daily posting. The current Supreme Leader’s verified profile, opened in March 2026, typically releases formal statements tied to religious observances, government milestones, or policy announcements, with extended periods of silence in between.
In the opening days of the resolution period, the account issued a cluster of messages around Government Week and ahead of Islamic Unity Week, including several on August 28 and one on August 29. Historical volume on the handle and comparable official Iranian leadership accounts shows that such bursts are the exception; sustained output above five messages in a single week remains rare absent major escalations or scheduled events. With the remainder of the interval offering limited additional triggers, market pricing aligns with this low baseline frequency.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 28, 12:00 PM ET and September 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 25, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Volume
$6,067Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 25, 2026, 12:00 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 28, 12:00 PM ET and September 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Trader consensus assigns an 85.3% probability to fewer than five posts by Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei’s official X account (@MKhamenei_ir) during the August 28–September 4 window.** This reflects the account’s established pattern of infrequent, occasion-driven activity rather than regular daily posting. The current Supreme Leader’s verified profile, opened in March 2026, typically releases formal statements tied to religious observances, government milestones, or policy announcements, with extended periods of silence in between.
In the opening days of the resolution period, the account issued a cluster of messages around Government Week and ahead of Islamic Unity Week, including several on August 28 and one on August 29. Historical volume on the handle and comparable official Iranian leadership accounts shows that such bursts are the exception; sustained output above five messages in a single week remains rare absent major escalations or scheduled events. With the remainder of the interval offering limited additional triggers, market pricing aligns with this low baseline frequency.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 28, 12:00 PM ET and September 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$6,067Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 25, 2026, 12:00 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus assigns an 85.3% probability to fewer than five posts by Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei’s official X account (@MKhamenei_ir) during the August 28–September 4 window.** This reflects the account’s established pattern of infrequent, occasion-driven activity rather than regular daily posting. The current Supreme Leader’s verified profile, opened in March 2026, typically releases formal statements tied to religious observances, government milestones, or policy announcements, with extended periods of silence in between. In the opening days of the resolution period, the account issued a cluster of messages around Government Week and ahead of Islamic Unity Week, including several on August 28 and one on August 29. Historical volume on the handle and comparable official Iranian leadership accounts shows that such bursts are the exception; sustained output above five messages in a single week remains rare absent major escalations or scheduled events. With the remainder of the interval offering limited additional triggers, market pricing aligns with this low baseline frequency.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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