Traders assign overwhelming probability to fewer than five posts from the @khamenei_ir account between May 12 and May 19 because the platform has maintained sparse activity since the February 2026 leadership transition. Following the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, his successor has directed infrequent official statements, often limited to archival reposts or measured commentary on regional issues. Only one post appeared in the current window as of mid-May, consistent with prior weeks that produced one or two entries amid ongoing diplomatic caution. This pattern reflects institutional preference for controlled messaging during heightened tensions rather than daily engagement, leaving limited room for higher volumes unless a major event prompts additional statements before the period closes.