Latest ensemble forecasts from European models position the market's leading 45% implied probability on a minimum of 17°C or higher for Amsterdam on September 18, driven by a mild airmass under high pressure with limited nocturnal cooling. Historical mid-September lows average near 12–14°C, but current guidance shows daytime highs near 20°C and light winds reducing radiative cooling overnight. Traders are weighting the spread across 11–13°C outcomes at roughly 20–26% each, reflecting typical model uncertainty ranges of 2–3°C this far ahead. Updated runs from the ECMWF and national meteorological services will refine the exact threshold ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 18?
17°C or higher 84%
15°C 40%
13°C 27%
12°C 23%
BARU
BARU
Sep 18, 2026
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
22%
11°C
23%
12°C
23%
13°C
27%
14°C
23%
15°C
40%
16°C
18%
17°C or higher
84%
17°C or higher 84%
15°C 40%
13°C 27%
12°C 23%
BARU
BARU
Sep 18, 2026
7°C or below
$16 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$0 Vol.
1%
9°C
$0 Vol.
1%
10°C
$8 Vol.
22%
11°C
$0 Vol.
23%
12°C
$0 Vol.
23%
13°C
$0 Vol.
27%
14°C
$0 Vol.
23%
15°C
$0 Vol.
40%
16°C
$0 Vol.
18%
17°C or higher
$0 Vol.
84%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from European models position the market's leading 45% implied probability on a minimum of 17°C or higher for Amsterdam on September 18, driven by a mild airmass under high pressure with limited nocturnal cooling. Historical mid-September lows average near 12–14°C, but current guidance shows daytime highs near 20°C and light winds reducing radiative cooling overnight. Traders are weighting the spread across 11–13°C outcomes at roughly 20–26% each, reflecting typical model uncertainty ranges of 2–3°C this far ahead. Updated runs from the ECMWF and national meteorological services will refine the exact threshold ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 16, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$24Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 16, 2026, 12:31 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from European models position the market's leading 45% implied probability on a minimum of 17°C or higher for Amsterdam on September 18, driven by a mild airmass under high pressure with limited nocturnal cooling. Historical mid-September lows average near 12–14°C, but current guidance shows daytime highs near 20°C and light winds reducing radiative cooling overnight. Traders are weighting the spread across 11–13°C outcomes at roughly 20–26% each, reflecting typical model uncertainty ranges of 2–3°C this far ahead. Updated runs from the ECMWF and national meteorological services will refine the exact threshold ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$24Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 16, 2026, 12:31 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from European models position the market's leading 45% implied probability on a minimum of 17°C or higher for Amsterdam on September 18, driven by a mild airmass under high pressure with limited nocturnal cooling. Historical mid-September lows average near 12–14°C, but current guidance shows daytime highs near 20°C and light winds reducing radiative cooling overnight. Traders are weighting the spread across 11–13°C outcomes at roughly 20–26% each, reflecting typical model uncertainty ranges of 2–3°C this far ahead. Updated runs from the ECMWF and national meteorological services will refine the exact threshold ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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