Persistent southerly flow and widespread cloud cover from occasional showers and squally thunderstorms are keeping overnight radiative cooling limited across Hong Kong, supporting minimum temperatures centered on 26–28 °C for August 26. High humidity (75–95 %) and frequent precipitation reduce the diurnal temperature range, while model guidance shows minor differences in the timing and intensity of overnight rain that can shift the exact low by 1 °C. Official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts list a 27–31 °C range, with ensemble spreads reflecting uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and localized thunderstorm outflow. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 27 °C and 28 °C, with 26 °C remaining plausible if clearer intervals allow slightly greater cooling.