Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a minimum temperature near 70–74°F for New York City on August 14, 2026, with limited overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and moderate humidity typical of late-summer maritime air. Above-average seasonal temperatures, driven by a persistent warm pattern noted in the Climate Prediction Center’s August outlook, have kept overnight lows elevated compared with the 1991–2020 Central Park climatology of roughly 68°F. Small differences among ensemble members in boundary-layer mixing, urban heat retention, and Atlantic sea-breeze timing create the tight clustering between the 72–73°F and 74–75°F bins. Updated model runs and NWS forecast discussions expected later on August 13 will likely refine the precise minimum before resolution.