Recent cold front passage over Poland has advected cooler maritime air into the Warsaw region, with ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models converging on an overnight low of 11–12 °C for September 19 under partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly winds. Radiative cooling after sunset, moderated by increasing surface pressure near 1021 hPa, supports this range, consistent with climatological September minima around 10 °C. Trader consensus assigns roughly equal implied probability to the <=6 °C and >=16 °C tails, highlighting model spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover that could shift the minimum by several degrees before resolution. Updated high-resolution runs and official IMGW observations on the 19th will refine these probabilities ahead of market close.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Warsaw on September 19?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on September 19?
6°C or below 95%
16°C or higher 95%
10°C 39%
13°C 39%
BARU
BARU
Sep 19, 2026
6°C or below
95%
7°C
20%
8°C
24%
9°C
36%
10°C
39%
11°C
21%
12°C
19%
13°C
39%
14°C
38%
15°C
39%
16°C or higher
95%
6°C or below 95%
16°C or higher 95%
10°C 39%
13°C 39%
BARU
BARU
Sep 19, 2026
6°C or below
$0 Vol.
95%
7°C
$0 Vol.
20%
8°C
$0 Vol.
24%
9°C
$0 Vol.
36%
10°C
$0 Vol.
39%
11°C
$0 Vol.
21%
12°C
$22 Vol.
19%
13°C
$0 Vol.
39%
14°C
$0 Vol.
38%
15°C
$56 Vol.
39%
16°C or higher
$0 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent cold front passage over Poland has advected cooler maritime air into the Warsaw region, with ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models converging on an overnight low of 11–12 °C for September 19 under partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly winds. Radiative cooling after sunset, moderated by increasing surface pressure near 1021 hPa, supports this range, consistent with climatological September minima around 10 °C. Trader consensus assigns roughly equal implied probability to the <=6 °C and >=16 °C tails, highlighting model spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover that could shift the minimum by several degrees before resolution. Updated high-resolution runs and official IMGW observations on the 19th will refine these probabilities ahead of market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$78Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 19, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent cold front passage over Poland has advected cooler maritime air into the Warsaw region, with ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models converging on an overnight low of 11–12 °C for September 19 under partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly winds. Radiative cooling after sunset, moderated by increasing surface pressure near 1021 hPa, supports this range, consistent with climatological September minima around 10 °C. Trader consensus assigns roughly equal implied probability to the <=6 °C and >=16 °C tails, highlighting model spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover that could shift the minimum by several degrees before resolution. Updated high-resolution runs and official IMGW observations on the 19th will refine these probabilities ahead of market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$78Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 19, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent cold front passage over Poland has advected cooler maritime air into the Warsaw region, with ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models converging on an overnight low of 11–12 °C for September 19 under partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly winds. Radiative cooling after sunset, moderated by increasing surface pressure near 1021 hPa, supports this range, consistent with climatological September minima around 10 °C. Trader consensus assigns roughly equal implied probability to the <=6 °C and >=16 °C tails, highlighting model spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover that could shift the minimum by several degrees before resolution. Updated high-resolution runs and official IMGW observations on the 19th will refine these probabilities ahead of market close.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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