Recent observational data from agencies like Copernicus and NOAA show global temperatures in early 2026 holding near 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels after the 2024-2025 El Niño peak, with a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions followed by emerging El Niño signals in the Pacific by mid-year. These factors, combined with model consensus from the WMO and multi-model ensembles projecting above-normal but not extreme land and sea-surface temperatures for May-June-July, position the 1.10–1.14°C range as the market leader. Traders weigh the typical seasonal cooling in May against accelerating background warming and the limited intensification expected before summer, while acknowledging uncertainty in exact monthly outcomes due to short-term atmospheric variability and ongoing forecast updates from NOAA and ECMWF.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 61%
<1.10ºC 17%
1.15–1.19ºC 15%
1.20–1.24ºC 7%
$58,562 Vol.
$58,562 Vol.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
17%
1.10–1.14ºC
61%
1.15–1.19ºC
15%
1.20–1.24ºC
7%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
1%
1.10–1.14ºC 61%
<1.10ºC 17%
1.15–1.19ºC 15%
1.20–1.24ºC 7%
$58,562 Vol.
$58,562 Vol.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$23,927 Vol.
17%
1.10–1.14ºC
$5,389 Vol.
61%
1.15–1.19ºC
$8,783 Vol.
15%
1.20–1.24ºC
$6,181 Vol.
7%
1.25–1.29ºC
$6,539 Vol.
3%
>1.29ºC
$7,755 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from agencies like Copernicus and NOAA show global temperatures in early 2026 holding near 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels after the 2024-2025 El Niño peak, with a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions followed by emerging El Niño signals in the Pacific by mid-year. These factors, combined with model consensus from the WMO and multi-model ensembles projecting above-normal but not extreme land and sea-surface temperatures for May-June-July, position the 1.10–1.14°C range as the market leader. Traders weigh the typical seasonal cooling in May against accelerating background warming and the limited intensification expected before summer, while acknowledging uncertainty in exact monthly outcomes due to short-term atmospheric variability and ongoing forecast updates from NOAA and ECMWF.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volume
$58,562Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 10, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from agencies like Copernicus and NOAA show global temperatures in early 2026 holding near 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels after the 2024-2025 El Niño peak, with a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions followed by emerging El Niño signals in the Pacific by mid-year. These factors, combined with model consensus from the WMO and multi-model ensembles projecting above-normal but not extreme land and sea-surface temperatures for May-June-July, position the 1.10–1.14°C range as the market leader. Traders weigh the typical seasonal cooling in May against accelerating background warming and the limited intensification expected before summer, while acknowledging uncertainty in exact monthly outcomes due to short-term atmospheric variability and ongoing forecast updates from NOAA and ECMWF.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$58,562Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 10, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent observational data from agencies like Copernicus and NOAA show global temperatures in early 2026 holding near 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels after the 2024-2025 El Niño peak, with a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions followed by emerging El Niño signals in the Pacific by mid-year. These factors, combined with model consensus from the WMO and multi-model ensembles projecting above-normal but not extreme land and sea-surface temperatures for May-June-July, position the 1.10–1.14°C range as the market leader. Traders weigh the typical seasonal cooling in May against accelerating background warming and the limited intensification expected before summer, while acknowledging uncertainty in exact monthly outcomes due to short-term atmospheric variability and ongoing forecast updates from NOAA and ECMWF.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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