Ongoing military exchanges, including Ukraine's large-scale drone strikes on Russian territory in mid-August 2026 and reciprocal Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, continue to shape positions. Earlier trilateral envoy talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in the year addressed territory and security but produced no direct leader engagement. Zelenskyy's June 2026 open letter proposing a face-to-face meeting was rebuffed by Putin, who has conditioned any dialogue on Russia achieving its stated objectives. These dynamics, combined with persistent differences over territorial control and guarantees, sustain trader assessments of low near-term probability for a handshake while highlighting escalation risks or external mediation shifts that could alter timelines.