The near-certain trader consensus that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will not shake hands by June 30 stems from the absence of any scheduled bilateral summit or direct diplomatic channel, despite ongoing U.S.-mediated talks. Recent military escalations, including Russia's major drone strikes on Kyiv and Ukrainian infrastructure on May 14 followed by Ukrainian responses against Russian energy facilities, have reinforced active hostilities over de-escalation. Kremlin statements have conditioned any leader-level meeting on prior acceptance of Russia's core territorial and security demands, while prisoner exchanges and low-level envoy contacts continue without advancing toward a personal encounter. Only an abrupt multilateral breakthrough or significant concessions within the narrow remaining window could alter this trajectory before the deadline.