International mediation efforts, primarily through the Quad grouping of the United States, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, have centered on proposals for a three-month humanitarian truce followed by a permanent ceasefire and civilian-led transition, yet both the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have rejected key elements amid ongoing territorial contests. SAF leadership has conditioned talks on RSF withdrawal and legitimacy recognition, while the RSF accepted earlier roadmaps but continued offensives, including August 2026 drone strikes near El Obeid. Broader diplomatic initiatives involving the African Union, UN, and League of Arab States have reiterated demands for monitored cessations of hostilities, but battlefield dynamics—with RSF control in Darfur and parts of Kordofan and SAF advances elsewhere—have sustained fighting into the fourth year of conflict. Trader assessments reflect these stalled negotiations and recent escalations as primary influences on near-term ceasefire probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiSudan civil war ceasefire by...?
Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?
$119,325 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31, 2026
9%
$119,325 Vol.
December 31, 2026
$14,787 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.International mediation efforts, primarily through the Quad grouping of the United States, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, have centered on proposals for a three-month humanitarian truce followed by a permanent ceasefire and civilian-led transition, yet both the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have rejected key elements amid ongoing territorial contests. SAF leadership has conditioned talks on RSF withdrawal and legitimacy recognition, while the RSF accepted earlier roadmaps but continued offensives, including August 2026 drone strikes near El Obeid. Broader diplomatic initiatives involving the African Union, UN, and League of Arab States have reiterated demands for monitored cessations of hostilities, but battlefield dynamics—with RSF control in Darfur and parts of Kordofan and SAF advances elsewhere—have sustained fighting into the fourth year of conflict. Trader assessments reflect these stalled negotiations and recent escalations as primary influences on near-term ceasefire probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 22, 2025, 2:08 PM ET
Volume
$119,325Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 22, 2025, 2:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.International mediation efforts, primarily through the Quad grouping of the United States, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, have centered on proposals for a three-month humanitarian truce followed by a permanent ceasefire and civilian-led transition, yet both the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have rejected key elements amid ongoing territorial contests. SAF leadership has conditioned talks on RSF withdrawal and legitimacy recognition, while the RSF accepted earlier roadmaps but continued offensives, including August 2026 drone strikes near El Obeid. Broader diplomatic initiatives involving the African Union, UN, and League of Arab States have reiterated demands for monitored cessations of hostilities, but battlefield dynamics—with RSF control in Darfur and parts of Kordofan and SAF advances elsewhere—have sustained fighting into the fourth year of conflict. Trader assessments reflect these stalled negotiations and recent escalations as primary influences on near-term ceasefire probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$119,325Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 22, 2025, 2:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...International mediation efforts, primarily through the Quad grouping of the United States, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, have centered on proposals for a three-month humanitarian truce followed by a permanent ceasefire and civilian-led transition, yet both the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have rejected key elements amid ongoing territorial contests. SAF leadership has conditioned talks on RSF withdrawal and legitimacy recognition, while the RSF accepted earlier roadmaps but continued offensives, including August 2026 drone strikes near El Obeid. Broader diplomatic initiatives involving the African Union, UN, and League of Arab States have reiterated demands for monitored cessations of hostilities, but battlefield dynamics—with RSF control in Darfur and parts of Kordofan and SAF advances elsewhere—have sustained fighting into the fourth year of conflict. Trader assessments reflect these stalled negotiations and recent escalations as primary influences on near-term ceasefire probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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