Moonshot holds near-certain market-implied odds as the third-best AI agent lab by end of August, driven by recent demonstrated agent capabilities, benchmark performance, and competitive positioning against larger labs. Traders appear to view its progress in autonomous task handling and model releases as sufficient to secure that ranking ahead of more established players. This consensus reflects capital-backed sentiment on recent technical milestones rather than guarantees, given the fast-moving nature of AI development. Potential challenges include last-minute releases or capability jumps from labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google that could alter relative standings before resolution, or shifts in evaluation criteria for agent quality.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiMoonshot 100.0%
Anthropic <1%
OpenAI <1%
Z.ai <1%
$24,482 Vol.
$24,482 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
No
OpenAI
No
Z.ai
No
SpaceXAI
No
Meta
No
Alibaba
No
No
Moonshot
Yes
DeepSeek
No
Xiaomi
No
MiniMax
No
Nvidia
No
ByteDance
No
Baidu
No
Amazon
No
Mistral
No
Meituan
No
Microsoft
No
Moonshot 100.0%
Anthropic <1%
OpenAI <1%
Z.ai <1%
$24,482 Vol.
$24,482 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
$1,177 Vol.
No
OpenAI
$4,071 Vol.
No
Z.ai
$2,233 Vol.
No
SpaceXAI
$859 Vol.
No
Meta
$504 Vol.
No
Alibaba
$1,262 Vol.
No
$462 Vol.
No
Moonshot
$6,613 Vol.
Yes
DeepSeek
$999 Vol.
No
Xiaomi
$1,107 Vol.
No
MiniMax
$868 Vol.
No
Nvidia
$401 Vol.
No
ByteDance
$465 Vol.
No
Baidu
$699 Vol.
No
Amazon
$477 Vol.
No
Mistral
$1,322 Vol.
No
Meituan
$580 Vol.
No
Microsoft
$385 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot holds near-certain market-implied odds as the third-best AI agent lab by end of August, driven by recent demonstrated agent capabilities, benchmark performance, and competitive positioning against larger labs. Traders appear to view its progress in autonomous task handling and model releases as sufficient to secure that ranking ahead of more established players. This consensus reflects capital-backed sentiment on recent technical milestones rather than guarantees, given the fast-moving nature of AI development. Potential challenges include last-minute releases or capability jumps from labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google that could alter relative standings before resolution, or shifts in evaluation criteria for agent quality.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$24,482Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot holds near-certain market-implied odds as the third-best AI agent lab by end of August, driven by recent demonstrated agent capabilities, benchmark performance, and competitive positioning against larger labs. Traders appear to view its progress in autonomous task handling and model releases as sufficient to secure that ranking ahead of more established players. This consensus reflects capital-backed sentiment on recent technical milestones rather than guarantees, given the fast-moving nature of AI development. Potential challenges include last-minute releases or capability jumps from labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google that could alter relative standings before resolution, or shifts in evaluation criteria for agent quality.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$24,482Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
Moonshot holds near-certain market-implied odds as the third-best AI agent lab by end of August, driven by recent demonstrated agent capabilities, benchmark performance, and competitive positioning against larger labs. Traders appear to view its progress in autonomous task handling and model releases as sufficient to secure that ranking ahead of more established players. This consensus reflects capital-backed sentiment on recent technical milestones rather than guarantees, given the fast-moving nature of AI development. Potential challenges include last-minute releases or capability jumps from labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google that could alter relative standings before resolution, or shifts in evaluation criteria for agent quality.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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