The closely matched probabilities around mid-to-late September for the next Claude Opus release stem from the absence of an official Anthropic announcement or confirmed launch window, leaving traders to weigh typical AI development cycles against competitive pressures from OpenAI and Google. Recent model iterations and internal scaling efforts have fueled speculation of an imminent drop, yet historical delays in flagship large language model releases and the lack of verified capability demonstrations keep "no release by September 30" tied near the top. Key swing factors include potential developer conference timing, benchmark leaks, or regulatory scrutiny on AI safety that could shift the window, underscoring how real-money consensus captures both momentum and downside risks in a fast-moving sector.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiSeptember 24 20%
No release by September 30 20%
September 22 18%
September 23 18%
BARU
BARU
Sep 18, 2026
September 18
4%
September 19
1%
September 20
1%
September 21
6%
September 22
18%
September 23
18%
September 24
20%
September 25
12%
September 26
<1%
September 27
<1%
September 28
8%
September 29
9%
September 30
7%
No release by September 30
20%
September 24 20%
No release by September 30 20%
September 22 18%
September 23 18%
BARU
BARU
Sep 18, 2026
September 18
$156 Vol.
4%
September 19
$603 Vol.
1%
September 20
$624 Vol.
1%
September 21
$134 Vol.
6%
September 22
$579 Vol.
18%
September 23
$573 Vol.
18%
September 24
$996 Vol.
20%
September 25
$132 Vol.
12%
September 26
$553 Vol.
<1%
September 27
$553 Vol.
<1%
September 28
$184 Vol.
8%
September 29
$689 Vol.
9%
September 30
$390 Vol.
7%
No release by September 30
$1,400 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.The closely matched probabilities around mid-to-late September for the next Claude Opus release stem from the absence of an official Anthropic announcement or confirmed launch window, leaving traders to weigh typical AI development cycles against competitive pressures from OpenAI and Google. Recent model iterations and internal scaling efforts have fueled speculation of an imminent drop, yet historical delays in flagship large language model releases and the lack of verified capability demonstrations keep "no release by September 30" tied near the top. Key swing factors include potential developer conference timing, benchmark leaks, or regulatory scrutiny on AI safety that could shift the window, underscoring how real-money consensus captures both momentum and downside risks in a fast-moving sector.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$8,339Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.The closely matched probabilities around mid-to-late September for the next Claude Opus release stem from the absence of an official Anthropic announcement or confirmed launch window, leaving traders to weigh typical AI development cycles against competitive pressures from OpenAI and Google. Recent model iterations and internal scaling efforts have fueled speculation of an imminent drop, yet historical delays in flagship large language model releases and the lack of verified capability demonstrations keep "no release by September 30" tied near the top. Key swing factors include potential developer conference timing, benchmark leaks, or regulatory scrutiny on AI safety that could shift the window, underscoring how real-money consensus captures both momentum and downside risks in a fast-moving sector.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$8,339Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities around mid-to-late September for the next Claude Opus release stem from the absence of an official Anthropic announcement or confirmed launch window, leaving traders to weigh typical AI development cycles against competitive pressures from OpenAI and Google. Recent model iterations and internal scaling efforts have fueled speculation of an imminent drop, yet historical delays in flagship large language model releases and the lack of verified capability demonstrations keep "no release by September 30" tied near the top. Key swing factors include potential developer conference timing, benchmark leaks, or regulatory scrutiny on AI safety that could shift the window, underscoring how real-money consensus captures both momentum and downside risks in a fast-moving sector.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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