OpenAI’s recent GPT-6 Astra release has driven its 71.7% implied probability by quickly claiming the top spot on Arena.ai’s Code Arena WebDev leaderboard with scores around 1,797–1,800 Elo, outpacing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 by roughly 35 points on agentic frontend tasks involving multi-step reasoning, tool use, and image-to-code workflows. Traders view this as a strong signal of continued frontier leadership through mid-to-late September, given the model’s rapid community validation after its early-September launch. Anthropic’s 23.5% odds reflect its prior dominance and Fable 5.1’s strong but now-second-place standing, while lower probabilities for Meta, Alibaba, Moonshot, and others stem from competitive but trailing Pareto frontier positions without matching recent breakthroughs. The market’s short remaining window heightens sensitivity to any new model updates before month-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiOpenAI 71.7%
Anthropic 24%
SpaceXAI <1%
Moonshot <1%
$141,449 Vol.
$141,449 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
OpenAI
72%
Anthropic
24%
SpaceXAI
1%
Moonshot
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meta
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Poolside
<1%
Mistral
<1%
OpenAI 71.7%
Anthropic 24%
SpaceXAI <1%
Moonshot <1%
$141,449 Vol.
$141,449 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
OpenAI
$26,784 Vol.
72%
Anthropic
$58,737 Vol.
24%
SpaceXAI
$6,591 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$20,259 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$8,527 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$4,801 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$3,137 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$1,134 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,246 Vol.
<1%
$4,324 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$657 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,690 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$560 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$571 Vol.
<1%
Poolside
$641 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$789 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s recent GPT-6 Astra release has driven its 71.7% implied probability by quickly claiming the top spot on Arena.ai’s Code Arena WebDev leaderboard with scores around 1,797–1,800 Elo, outpacing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 by roughly 35 points on agentic frontend tasks involving multi-step reasoning, tool use, and image-to-code workflows. Traders view this as a strong signal of continued frontier leadership through mid-to-late September, given the model’s rapid community validation after its early-September launch. Anthropic’s 23.5% odds reflect its prior dominance and Fable 5.1’s strong but now-second-place standing, while lower probabilities for Meta, Alibaba, Moonshot, and others stem from competitive but trailing Pareto frontier positions without matching recent breakthroughs. The market’s short remaining window heightens sensitivity to any new model updates before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 20, 2026, 7:23 PM ET
Volume
$141,449Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 20, 2026, 7:23 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdevResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s recent GPT-6 Astra release has driven its 71.7% implied probability by quickly claiming the top spot on Arena.ai’s Code Arena WebDev leaderboard with scores around 1,797–1,800 Elo, outpacing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 by roughly 35 points on agentic frontend tasks involving multi-step reasoning, tool use, and image-to-code workflows. Traders view this as a strong signal of continued frontier leadership through mid-to-late September, given the model’s rapid community validation after its early-September launch. Anthropic’s 23.5% odds reflect its prior dominance and Fable 5.1’s strong but now-second-place standing, while lower probabilities for Meta, Alibaba, Moonshot, and others stem from competitive but trailing Pareto frontier positions without matching recent breakthroughs. The market’s short remaining window heightens sensitivity to any new model updates before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$141,449Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 20, 2026, 7:23 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdevResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s recent GPT-6 Astra release has driven its 71.7% implied probability by quickly claiming the top spot on Arena.ai’s Code Arena WebDev leaderboard with scores around 1,797–1,800 Elo, outpacing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 by roughly 35 points on agentic frontend tasks involving multi-step reasoning, tool use, and image-to-code workflows. Traders view this as a strong signal of continued frontier leadership through mid-to-late September, given the model’s rapid community validation after its early-September launch. Anthropic’s 23.5% odds reflect its prior dominance and Fable 5.1’s strong but now-second-place standing, while lower probabilities for Meta, Alibaba, Moonshot, and others stem from competitive but trailing Pareto frontier positions without matching recent breakthroughs. The market’s short remaining window heightens sensitivity to any new model updates before month-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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