Recent July and August 2026 model releases have intensified competition for third place among frontier AI labs, with Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 holding narrow leads on intelligence and agentic benchmarks while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 tiers, Google's Gemini 3.6 variants, xAI's Grok 4.5/4.6, and Meta's Muse Spark 1.2 deliver comparable gains. Chinese labs including DeepSeek, Moonshot, and MiniMax have closed gaps through cost-efficient open-weight models and rapid iteration, creating parity that leaves third-best positioning highly fluid. Trader sentiment at roughly 45-55% across leading candidates reflects uncertainty over the next 2.5 months, where benchmark shifts, additional releases, or compute announcements could quickly reorder the field before October 31.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiGoogle 44%
Tencent 39%
DeepSeek 39%
ByteDance 39%
BARU
BARU
Oct 31, 2026
44%
Tencent
39%
DeepSeek
39%
ByteDance
39%
Meta
39%
Mistral
39%
Xiaomi
39%
Amazon
39%
Microsoft
39%
StepFun
37%
Baidu
37%
Meituan
27%
MiniMax
25%
Nvidia
25%
Alibaba
23%
OpenAI
23%
Anthropic
23%
Moonshot
23%
SpaceXAI
23%
Thinky
21%
Z.ai
47%
Google 44%
Tencent 39%
DeepSeek 39%
ByteDance 39%
BARU
BARU
Oct 31, 2026
$33 Vol.
44%
Tencent
$0 Vol.
39%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
39%
ByteDance
$0 Vol.
39%
Meta
$0 Vol.
39%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
39%
Xiaomi
$0 Vol.
39%
Amazon
$0 Vol.
39%
Microsoft
$0 Vol.
39%
StepFun
$0 Vol.
37%
Baidu
$0 Vol.
37%
Meituan
$0 Vol.
27%
MiniMax
$0 Vol.
25%
Nvidia
$0 Vol.
25%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
23%
OpenAI
$0 Vol.
23%
Anthropic
$0 Vol.
23%
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
23%
SpaceXAI
$0 Vol.
23%
Thinky
$0 Vol.
21%
Z.ai
$33 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent July and August 2026 model releases have intensified competition for third place among frontier AI labs, with Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 holding narrow leads on intelligence and agentic benchmarks while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 tiers, Google's Gemini 3.6 variants, xAI's Grok 4.5/4.6, and Meta's Muse Spark 1.2 deliver comparable gains. Chinese labs including DeepSeek, Moonshot, and MiniMax have closed gaps through cost-efficient open-weight models and rapid iteration, creating parity that leaves third-best positioning highly fluid. Trader sentiment at roughly 45-55% across leading candidates reflects uncertainty over the next 2.5 months, where benchmark shifts, additional releases, or compute announcements could quickly reorder the field before October 31.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ET
Volume
$66Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent July and August 2026 model releases have intensified competition for third place among frontier AI labs, with Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 holding narrow leads on intelligence and agentic benchmarks while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 tiers, Google's Gemini 3.6 variants, xAI's Grok 4.5/4.6, and Meta's Muse Spark 1.2 deliver comparable gains. Chinese labs including DeepSeek, Moonshot, and MiniMax have closed gaps through cost-efficient open-weight models and rapid iteration, creating parity that leaves third-best positioning highly fluid. Trader sentiment at roughly 45-55% across leading candidates reflects uncertainty over the next 2.5 months, where benchmark shifts, additional releases, or compute announcements could quickly reorder the field before October 31.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$66Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July and August 2026 model releases have intensified competition for third place among frontier AI labs, with Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 holding narrow leads on intelligence and agentic benchmarks while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 tiers, Google's Gemini 3.6 variants, xAI's Grok 4.5/4.6, and Meta's Muse Spark 1.2 deliver comparable gains. Chinese labs including DeepSeek, Moonshot, and MiniMax have closed gaps through cost-efficient open-weight models and rapid iteration, creating parity that leaves third-best positioning highly fluid. Trader sentiment at roughly 45-55% across leading candidates reflects uncertainty over the next 2.5 months, where benchmark shifts, additional releases, or compute announcements could quickly reorder the field before October 31.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan