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icon for US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?
Teknologi·Nuke

US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?

icon for US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?
Teknologi·Nuke

US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?

11% peluang
Polymarket

$26,571 Vol.

11% peluang
Polymarket

$26,571 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent NRC streamlining under executive orders and the new Part 53 framework has accelerated construction permit reviews, enabling milestones like TerraPower’s Natrium permit in March 2026—the first for a commercial non-light-water reactor in decades. However, full operating licenses require separate applications after substantial construction progress, with typical 12–18 month reviews from docketing. Most advanced projects, including SMRs and large reactors backed by DOE financing, remain in early environmental scoping, limited work authorizations, or pre-application stages, with operating license filings targeted for late 2027 or later. Test and demonstration reactors reaching DOE-authorized criticality do not equate to commercial NRC operating licenses. These sequential regulatory and construction hurdles sustain the market’s strong consensus against a 2026 grant.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$26,571
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent NRC streamlining under executive orders and the new Part 53 framework has accelerated construction permit reviews, enabling milestones like TerraPower’s Natrium permit in March 2026—the first for a commercial non-light-water reactor in decades. However, full operating licenses require separate applications after substantial construction progress, with typical 12–18 month reviews from docketing. Most advanced projects, including SMRs and large reactors backed by DOE financing, remain in early environmental scoping, limited work authorizations, or pre-application stages, with operating license filings targeted for late 2027 or later. Test and demonstration reactors reaching DOE-authorized criticality do not equate to commercial NRC operating licenses. These sequential regulatory and construction hurdles sustain the market’s strong consensus against a 2026 grant.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$26,571
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 11% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 11¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 11% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?" telah menghasilkan $26.6K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Jan 26, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?" adalah 11% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 11% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.