Recent U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission decisions, including the March construction permit for TerraPower’s Natrium advanced reactor in Wyoming, mark the first such approval for a new commercial design in nearly a decade. However, full operating licenses demand additional phased safety reviews, environmental assessments, and operational demonstrations that typically extend well beyond initial permits. The Part 53 risk-informed framework, effective April 29, introduces faster pathways for advanced reactors, yet no applications have reached final approval under it this year. Proposed Part 57 rules for microreactors could further compress timelines to 6–12 months once finalized, but comment periods and implementation delays keep near-term licensing probabilities low. Traders therefore assign only a 25.5% chance of a new license by year-end.