Recent USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory monitoring of summit tilt at the Uēkahuna station and vent glow shows ongoing inflation following Episode 52’s abrupt end on July 29, with precursory low-level lava dome fountaining and overflows beginning midday August 12. These cyclical deflation-inflation patterns, typically lasting 2–3 days before renewed fountaining, align with tilt-based models that narrowed the Episode 53 window to August 11–14 and then August 12–13. Trader consensus heavily favors the Aug 11-12 outcome at 59.5% because the observed precursory activity and continuing inflation match historical analogs for imminent sustained fountains at Halemaʻumaʻu, while Aug 13 or later retains 44% amid possible delays if deflation resumes.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWhen will Kīlauea's Episode 53 begin?
When will Kīlauea's Episode 53 begin?
Aug 11-12 96%
Aug 13 or later <1%
Aug 8 or earlier <1%
Aug 9-10 <1%
BARU
BARU
Sep 1, 2026
Aug 8 or earlier
1%
Aug 9-10
1%
Aug 11-12
96%
Aug 13 or later
1%
Aug 11-12 96%
Aug 13 or later <1%
Aug 8 or earlier <1%
Aug 9-10 <1%
BARU
BARU
Sep 1, 2026
Aug 8 or earlier
$830 Vol.
1%
Aug 9-10
$1,597 Vol.
1%
Aug 11-12
$2,728 Vol.
96%
Aug 13 or later
$1,809 Vol.
1%
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.Recent USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory monitoring of summit tilt at the Uēkahuna station and vent glow shows ongoing inflation following Episode 52’s abrupt end on July 29, with precursory low-level lava dome fountaining and overflows beginning midday August 12. These cyclical deflation-inflation patterns, typically lasting 2–3 days before renewed fountaining, align with tilt-based models that narrowed the Episode 53 window to August 11–14 and then August 12–13. Trader consensus heavily favors the Aug 11-12 outcome at 59.5% because the observed precursory activity and continuing inflation match historical analogs for imminent sustained fountains at Halemaʻumaʻu, while Aug 13 or later retains 44% amid possible delays if deflation resumes.
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
Volume
$6,964Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messagesResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.Recent USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory monitoring of summit tilt at the Uēkahuna station and vent glow shows ongoing inflation following Episode 52’s abrupt end on July 29, with precursory low-level lava dome fountaining and overflows beginning midday August 12. These cyclical deflation-inflation patterns, typically lasting 2–3 days before renewed fountaining, align with tilt-based models that narrowed the Episode 53 window to August 11–14 and then August 12–13. Trader consensus heavily favors the Aug 11-12 outcome at 59.5% because the observed precursory activity and continuing inflation match historical analogs for imminent sustained fountains at Halemaʻumaʻu, while Aug 13 or later retains 44% amid possible delays if deflation resumes.
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
Volume
$6,964Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messagesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory monitoring of summit tilt at the Uēkahuna station and vent glow shows ongoing inflation following Episode 52’s abrupt end on July 29, with precursory low-level lava dome fountaining and overflows beginning midday August 12. These cyclical deflation-inflation patterns, typically lasting 2–3 days before renewed fountaining, align with tilt-based models that narrowed the Episode 53 window to August 11–14 and then August 12–13. Trader consensus heavily favors the Aug 11-12 outcome at 59.5% because the observed precursory activity and continuing inflation match historical analogs for imminent sustained fountains at Halemaʻumaʻu, while Aug 13 or later retains 44% amid possible delays if deflation resumes.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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