Heightened US-Iran naval confrontations and multinational escort operations amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis drive trader positioning, with US Central Command reporting over 2,000 escorted commercial transits since mid-year while Iranian forces target shipping and enforce route restrictions. Oil transit volumes through the chokepoint—historically averaging near 20 million barrels per day or 25% of global supply—remain severely constrained, pushing tanker charter rates above $1 million daily and elevating war-risk premiums that ripple into Brent and WTI benchmarks. European and Asian importers face elevated energy costs tied to rerouting and discounts from Gulf producers, while a May 2026 joint statement from the UK, France, and over 30 partners signals potential additional naval deployments for mine clearance and freedom-of-navigation support ahead of the December 31 resolution window. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game assessment of whether further Western or allied warships will transit before year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWhich countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?
$49,348 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
US
26%
Australia
19%
Italy
18%
UK
13%
France
9%
Germany
9%
Greece
11%
Netherlands
5%
$49,348 Vol.
US
$18,477 Vol.
26%
Australia
$0 Vol.
19%
Italy
$52 Vol.
18%
UK
$145 Vol.
13%
France
$14,147 Vol.
9%
Germany
$18 Vol.
9%
Greece
$52 Vol.
11%
Netherlands
$16,457 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Heightened US-Iran naval confrontations and multinational escort operations amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis drive trader positioning, with US Central Command reporting over 2,000 escorted commercial transits since mid-year while Iranian forces target shipping and enforce route restrictions. Oil transit volumes through the chokepoint—historically averaging near 20 million barrels per day or 25% of global supply—remain severely constrained, pushing tanker charter rates above $1 million daily and elevating war-risk premiums that ripple into Brent and WTI benchmarks. European and Asian importers face elevated energy costs tied to rerouting and discounts from Gulf producers, while a May 2026 joint statement from the UK, France, and over 30 partners signals potential additional naval deployments for mine clearance and freedom-of-navigation support ahead of the December 31 resolution window. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game assessment of whether further Western or allied warships will transit before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 26, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Volume
$49,348Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Aug 26, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Heightened US-Iran naval confrontations and multinational escort operations amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis drive trader positioning, with US Central Command reporting over 2,000 escorted commercial transits since mid-year while Iranian forces target shipping and enforce route restrictions. Oil transit volumes through the chokepoint—historically averaging near 20 million barrels per day or 25% of global supply—remain severely constrained, pushing tanker charter rates above $1 million daily and elevating war-risk premiums that ripple into Brent and WTI benchmarks. European and Asian importers face elevated energy costs tied to rerouting and discounts from Gulf producers, while a May 2026 joint statement from the UK, France, and over 30 partners signals potential additional naval deployments for mine clearance and freedom-of-navigation support ahead of the December 31 resolution window. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game assessment of whether further Western or allied warships will transit before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$49,348Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Aug 26, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Heightened US-Iran naval confrontations and multinational escort operations amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis drive trader positioning, with US Central Command reporting over 2,000 escorted commercial transits since mid-year while Iranian forces target shipping and enforce route restrictions. Oil transit volumes through the chokepoint—historically averaging near 20 million barrels per day or 25% of global supply—remain severely constrained, pushing tanker charter rates above $1 million daily and elevating war-risk premiums that ripple into Brent and WTI benchmarks. European and Asian importers face elevated energy costs tied to rerouting and discounts from Gulf producers, while a May 2026 joint statement from the UK, France, and over 30 partners signals potential additional naval deployments for mine clearance and freedom-of-navigation support ahead of the December 31 resolution window. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game assessment of whether further Western or allied warships will transit before year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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