Trump's endorsement decisions in the 2026 midterm cycle have centered on clearing primary fields for aligned candidates, with the president issuing support earlier than in prior cycles and favoring incumbents in secure Republican seats. His picks have secured a 97% primary win rate across more than 300 races so far, though recent setbacks in several gubernatorial and House contests have tested that record ahead of remaining runoffs and general election preparations. In Texas, Trump endorsed Ken Paxton over John Cornyn in the Senate primary runoff during May early voting, aligning with MAGA priorities on issues such as Senate rules and election measures. Traders monitor upcoming primary dates, candidate lobbying efforts, and any signals on further Senate or gubernatorial races that could shift positioning before November.