The emergence of El Niño conditions, with an 82% chance of developing by May–July 2026 according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, is the main driver pushing trader consensus toward an 87% implied probability that 2026 will feature a record-warm month. Long-term anthropogenic warming has already placed recent years near the top of global temperature rankings, and the expected ocean-atmosphere coupling during El Niño typically adds 0.1–0.2 °C to annual averages, with peak monthly impacts often occurring in late 2026. Early 2026 data from NOAA and Copernicus show the first four months ranking among the top five warmest on record, consistent with this trajectory. While El Niño strength remains uncertain and could moderate outcomes, historical analogs and current model ensembles indicate limited realistic pathways for every month to stay below prior peaks.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
$136,756 Vol.
$136,756 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
$136,756 Vol.
$136,756 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.The emergence of El Niño conditions, with an 82% chance of developing by May–July 2026 according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, is the main driver pushing trader consensus toward an 87% implied probability that 2026 will feature a record-warm month. Long-term anthropogenic warming has already placed recent years near the top of global temperature rankings, and the expected ocean-atmosphere coupling during El Niño typically adds 0.1–0.2 °C to annual averages, with peak monthly impacts often occurring in late 2026. Early 2026 data from NOAA and Copernicus show the first four months ranking among the top five warmest on record, consistent with this trajectory. While El Niño strength remains uncertain and could moderate outcomes, historical analogs and current model ensembles indicate limited realistic pathways for every month to stay below prior peaks.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Pasar Dibuka: Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Volume
$136,756Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 10, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.The emergence of El Niño conditions, with an 82% chance of developing by May–July 2026 according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, is the main driver pushing trader consensus toward an 87% implied probability that 2026 will feature a record-warm month. Long-term anthropogenic warming has already placed recent years near the top of global temperature rankings, and the expected ocean-atmosphere coupling during El Niño typically adds 0.1–0.2 °C to annual averages, with peak monthly impacts often occurring in late 2026. Early 2026 data from NOAA and Copernicus show the first four months ranking among the top five warmest on record, consistent with this trajectory. While El Niño strength remains uncertain and could moderate outcomes, historical analogs and current model ensembles indicate limited realistic pathways for every month to stay below prior peaks.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$136,756Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 10, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The emergence of El Niño conditions, with an 82% chance of developing by May–July 2026 according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, is the main driver pushing trader consensus toward an 87% implied probability that 2026 will feature a record-warm month. Long-term anthropogenic warming has already placed recent years near the top of global temperature rankings, and the expected ocean-atmosphere coupling during El Niño typically adds 0.1–0.2 °C to annual averages, with peak monthly impacts often occurring in late 2026. Early 2026 data from NOAA and Copernicus show the first four months ranking among the top five warmest on record, consistent with this trajectory. While El Niño strength remains uncertain and could moderate outcomes, historical analogs and current model ensembles indicate limited realistic pathways for every month to stay below prior peaks.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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