France’s minority government under Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu confronts a fragmented National Assembly that requires cross-party support or repeated use of Article 49.3 to advance fiscal legislation. Recent history shows extended negotiations over deficit reduction targets near 5 percent of GDP, spending priorities, and concessions to centrist and Socialist lawmakers that narrowly averted no-confidence defeats earlier this year. With the next budget cycle approaching amid ongoing European fiscal scrutiny and domestic pressure to stabilize debt markets, traders see roughly even odds because any shift in parliamentary alliances or renewed opposition unity could either enable timely passage through compromise or trigger further procedural delays and rollovers of prior-year measures. Upcoming committee reviews and floor debates in the fall remain the clearest near-term catalysts that could tip sentiment.