France’s fragmented National Assembly, lacking a stable majority, continues to drive the 64% market-implied probability that no full 2027 budget will pass by December 31. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s September 17–18 announcements of a €54 billion spending effort to narrow the deficit to around 5% of GDP—after the 2026 shortfall widened to an expected 5.4%—have drawn opposition from both La France Insoumise and Rassemblement National, each signaling readiness to censure the government. Socialists, who previously tolerated passage, now appear less accommodating ahead of the 2027 presidential election. With the parliamentary session set to end in late February 2027 and repeated reliance on special laws or Article 49.3 in prior cycles, traders price in a high risk of another year-end impasse requiring emergency measures to maintain tax collection and services.