Tight cattle inventories, down roughly 8% since 2019, combined with elevated feed and fertilizer costs, continue to constrain U.S. beef production forecasts for 2026, which USDA lowered slightly in July amid slower fed-cattle slaughter. July 2026 ground beef averaged $6.885 per pound, with retail prices already up over 10% year-over-year and further gains of 9–10% projected as lean supplies remain tight despite rising imports. Strong consumer demand has supported record wholesale cutout values near $350/cwt, though analysts note potential moderation in the second half if affordability pressures intensify. Herd expansion signals are emerging but remain modest, with full supply recovery unlikely before 2028.