Recent private-sector estimates and the Central Bank’s REM survey, which projects 1.8% for October, underpin the market-implied odds favoring the 1.9–2.1% bracket at 58%. Food and beverage prices, up in successive weekly readings, combined with the full-month impact of late-September fuel adjustments and scheduled gas tariff increases tied to subsidy reductions, have offset the broader disinflation trend that delivered 1.7% in August and 1.9% in September. Core measures remain anchored near 1.7%, while annual inflation sits at 33.4% year-over-year. The official INDEC release, due around November 12, will test whether seasonal and regulated-price pressures push the print above or below the 1.8–2.0% consensus range.