Persistent Russian insistence on preconditions for any direct engagement, combined with the absence of scheduled bilateral diplomacy in the narrow remaining window, underpins trader consensus against a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting by August 31. Putin publicly rejected Zelenskyy’s June 2026 open-letter proposal for face-to-face talks, citing lack of purpose absent prior agreement on core issues such as territory and security guarantees. Recent U.S.-mediated efforts, including fresh Ukrainian proposals delivered to American negotiators in mid-August and anticipated envoy visits to Kyiv and Moscow, remain focused on lower-level channels rather than a leaders’ summit. With the deadline less than three weeks away and no confirmed date or venue, the probability of an abrupt high-level breakthrough stays low. A sudden shift in U.S. shuttle diplomacy or an unforeseen crisis could still compress timelines, though such developments lack visible momentum.