Close bilateral security cooperation under Colombia’s newly inaugurated President Abelardo de la Espriella underpins the 97.5% trader consensus against a U.S. invasion in 2026. The right-wing leader’s alignment with the Trump administration has produced intelligence sharing, joint counter-narcotics operations, Colombia’s entry into the Shield of the Americas coalition, and a proposed $1 billion U.S. security assistance package focused on dismantling cartel networks and armed groups. Historical precedent of partnership, rather than direct intervention, combined with aligned priorities on narcoterrorism, reinforces this positioning. Realistic shifts could still arise from abrupt policy reversals in either capital, sudden escalation in regional conflicts, or major changes in Colombian governance that alter threat assessments before year-end.