U.S. President Donald Trump’s August 2026 decision to substantially scale back joint military exercises with South Korea, combined with his public statements that he expects to meet Kim Jong Un later in the year, has revived speculation about renewed diplomacy. North Korea has responded with missile launches, statements from Kim Yo Jong dismissing the gestures as insignificant, and insistence on policy shifts including acceptance of its nuclear status. No high-level preparatory talks or concessions addressing Pyongyang’s core demands have materialized, and no sitting U.S. president has ever entered North Korean territory. Traders therefore price a visit by year-end at low single digits, reflecting the absence of concrete diplomatic progress despite Trump’s personal interest in another summit.