A rapidly intensifying El Niño event, now confirmed by NOAA and projected by multiple models to reach very strong or record levels by late 2026, is the dominant catalyst pushing August global mean near-surface temperatures well above 1.29 °C relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that has already produced multiple months near or above 1.4–1.5 °C in 2025–2026, this ENSO-driven ocean heat release sustains elevated anomalies through the Northern Hemisphere summer. WMO and Met Office outlooks explicitly forecast the 2026 annual mean in the 1.3–1.9 °C range, with daily records already observed in early August reinforcing the trajectory. Only an abrupt El Niño collapse or major data revision could realistically shift the outcome below the market-implied threshold.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAgosto 2026 Aumento della temperatura (ºC)
Agosto 2026 Aumento della temperatura (ºC)
>1,29ºC 96.4%
1,25–1,29ºC 3.1%
1,20–1,24ºC <1%
<1,10ºC <1%
$13,894 Vol.
$13,894 Vol.
1 ago 2026
<1,10ºC
<1%
1,10–1,14ºC
<1%
1,15–1,19ºC
<1%
1,20–1,24ºC
<1%
1,25–1,29ºC
3%
>1,29ºC
96%
>1,29ºC 96.4%
1,25–1,29ºC 3.1%
1,20–1,24ºC <1%
<1,10ºC <1%
$13,894 Vol.
$13,894 Vol.
1 ago 2026
<1,10ºC
$877 Vol.
<1%
1,10–1,14ºC
$999 Vol.
<1%
1,15–1,19ºC
$1,121 Vol.
<1%
1,20–1,24ºC
$2,077 Vol.
<1%
1,25–1,29ºC
$2,549 Vol.
3%
>1,29ºC
$6,270 Vol.
96%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A rapidly intensifying El Niño event, now confirmed by NOAA and projected by multiple models to reach very strong or record levels by late 2026, is the dominant catalyst pushing August global mean near-surface temperatures well above 1.29 °C relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that has already produced multiple months near or above 1.4–1.5 °C in 2025–2026, this ENSO-driven ocean heat release sustains elevated anomalies through the Northern Hemisphere summer. WMO and Met Office outlooks explicitly forecast the 2026 annual mean in the 1.3–1.9 °C range, with daily records already observed in early August reinforcing the trajectory. Only an abrupt El Niño collapse or major data revision could realistically shift the outcome below the market-implied threshold.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercato aperto: Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$13,894Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A rapidly intensifying El Niño event, now confirmed by NOAA and projected by multiple models to reach very strong or record levels by late 2026, is the dominant catalyst pushing August global mean near-surface temperatures well above 1.29 °C relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that has already produced multiple months near or above 1.4–1.5 °C in 2025–2026, this ENSO-driven ocean heat release sustains elevated anomalies through the Northern Hemisphere summer. WMO and Met Office outlooks explicitly forecast the 2026 annual mean in the 1.3–1.9 °C range, with daily records already observed in early August reinforcing the trajectory. Only an abrupt El Niño collapse or major data revision could realistically shift the outcome below the market-implied threshold.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$13,894Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A rapidly intensifying El Niño event, now confirmed by NOAA and projected by multiple models to reach very strong or record levels by late 2026, is the dominant catalyst pushing August global mean near-surface temperatures well above 1.29 °C relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that has already produced multiple months near or above 1.4–1.5 °C in 2025–2026, this ENSO-driven ocean heat release sustains elevated anomalies through the Northern Hemisphere summer. WMO and Met Office outlooks explicitly forecast the 2026 annual mean in the 1.3–1.9 °C range, with daily records already observed in early August reinforcing the trajectory. Only an abrupt El Niño collapse or major data revision could realistically shift the outcome below the market-implied threshold.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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