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Elezioni·Elezioni Mondiali

Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive del centro di Dublino

icon for Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive del centro di Dublino
Elezioni·Elezioni Mondiali

Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive del centro di Dublino

Daniel Ennis 70%

Janice Boylan 22.7%

Gerry Hutch 6.3%

Ray McAdam 1.7%

Polymarket

$1,083,263 Vol.

Daniel Ennis 70%

Janice Boylan 22.7%

Gerry Hutch 6.3%

Ray McAdam 1.7%

Polymarket

$1,083,263 Vol.

Daniel Ennis

$32,466 Vol.

70%

Janice Boylan

$17,841 Vol.

23%

Gerry Hutch

$507,343 Vol.

6%

Ray McAdam

$34,431 Vol.

2%

Gillian Sherratt

$182,732 Vol.

1%

Janet Horner

$12,891 Vol.

1%

Ian Noel Smyth

$13,501 Vol.

1%

Mary Fitzpatrick

$45,252 Vol.

<1%

Malachy Steenson

$20,332 Vol.

<1%

Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin

$53,097 Vol.

<1%

Séamas McGrattan

$9,451 Vol.

<1%

John Stephens

$153,925 Vol.

<1%

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus heavily favors Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis at 69% implied probability to win the Dublin Central by-election on May 22, driven by his strong positioning for transfers under Ireland's single transferable vote system despite trailing Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan 18%-21% in first preferences per today's TG4/Irish Times Ipsos B&A poll. Ennis, a local figure who previously worked for TD Gary Gannon, shows robust second-preference support at 15%, while Boylan's 10% and Independent Gerry Hutch's 8% lag amid his limited appeal beyond inner-city areas despite notoriety and heavy Polymarket wagering. Fine Gael's Ray McAdam polls at 13% first preferences but faces party struggles; the tight four-way race hinges on transfer flows from lower candidates like Greens' Janet Horner.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$1,083,263
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus heavily favors Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis at 69% implied probability to win the Dublin Central by-election on May 22, driven by his strong positioning for transfers under Ireland's single transferable vote system despite trailing Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan 18%-21% in first preferences per today's TG4/Irish Times Ipsos B&A poll. Ennis, a local figure who previously worked for TD Gary Gannon, shows robust second-preference support at 15%, while Boylan's 10% and Independent Gerry Hutch's 8% lag amid his limited appeal beyond inner-city areas despite notoriety and heavy Polymarket wagering. Fine Gael's Ray McAdam polls at 13% first preferences but faces party struggles; the tight four-way race hinges on transfer flows from lower candidates like Greens' Janet Horner.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$1,083,263
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

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Domande frequenti

"Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive del centro di Dublino" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 12 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Daniel Ennis" a 70%, seguito da "Janice Boylan" a 23%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 70¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 70% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive del centro di Dublino" ha generato $1.1 million in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Feb 20, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive del centro di Dublino", esplora i 12 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive del centro di Dublino" è "Daniel Ennis" a 70%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 70% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Janice Boylan" a 23%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive del centro di Dublino" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.