**Recent April 2026 durable goods orders surged 7.9% MoM—nearly double the 4.0% consensus—primarily on a 21.5% jump in transportation equipment tied to large nondefense aircraft bookings, though core orders excluding transportation rose a more modest 1.1%.** This volatility sets up mean-reversion expectations for the May reading due June 25, with Polymarket traders heavily favoring negative outcomes (<-4% at 33.6%, -4% to -2% at 24.5%). Key swing factors include normalization in aircraft and capital goods orders, softer manufacturing PMI trends, and persistent high interest rates weighing on business investment. The closely matched probabilities in negative ranges reflect uncertainty around whether the April strength was a one-off or signals broader resilience in factory demand.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato<-4% 33.6%
-4%– -2% 25%
-2%–0% 10.1%
2%–4% 10%
$44,919 Vol.
$44,919 Vol.
25 giu 2026
<-4%
34%
-4%– -2%
25%
-2%–0%
10%
0%–2%
9%
2%–4%
10%
4%–6%
5%
6%-8%
1%
8%+
5%
<-4% 33.6%
-4%– -2% 25%
-2%–0% 10.1%
2%–4% 10%
$44,919 Vol.
$44,919 Vol.
25 giu 2026
<-4%
$3,314 Vol.
34%
-4%– -2%
$4,595 Vol.
25%
-2%–0%
$1,772 Vol.
10%
0%–2%
$7,520 Vol.
9%
2%–4%
$14,160 Vol.
10%
4%–6%
$8,250 Vol.
5%
6%-8%
$3,048 Vol.
1%
8%+
$2,259 Vol.
5%
This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.**Recent April 2026 durable goods orders surged 7.9% MoM—nearly double the 4.0% consensus—primarily on a 21.5% jump in transportation equipment tied to large nondefense aircraft bookings, though core orders excluding transportation rose a more modest 1.1%.** This volatility sets up mean-reversion expectations for the May reading due June 25, with Polymarket traders heavily favoring negative outcomes (<-4% at 33.6%, -4% to -2% at 24.5%). Key swing factors include normalization in aircraft and capital goods orders, softer manufacturing PMI trends, and persistent high interest rates weighing on business investment. The closely matched probabilities in negative ranges reflect uncertainty around whether the April strength was a one-off or signals broader resilience in factory demand.
This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Mercato aperto: Jun 1, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$44,919Data di fine
25 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 1, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.**Recent April 2026 durable goods orders surged 7.9% MoM—nearly double the 4.0% consensus—primarily on a 21.5% jump in transportation equipment tied to large nondefense aircraft bookings, though core orders excluding transportation rose a more modest 1.1%.** This volatility sets up mean-reversion expectations for the May reading due June 25, with Polymarket traders heavily favoring negative outcomes (<-4% at 33.6%, -4% to -2% at 24.5%). Key swing factors include normalization in aircraft and capital goods orders, softer manufacturing PMI trends, and persistent high interest rates weighing on business investment. The closely matched probabilities in negative ranges reflect uncertainty around whether the April strength was a one-off or signals broader resilience in factory demand.
This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$44,919Data di fine
25 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 1, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent April 2026 durable goods orders surged 7.9% MoM—nearly double the 4.0% consensus—primarily on a 21.5% jump in transportation equipment tied to large nondefense aircraft bookings, though core orders excluding transportation rose a more modest 1.1%.** This volatility sets up mean-reversion expectations for the May reading due June 25, with Polymarket traders heavily favoring negative outcomes (<-4% at 33.6%, -4% to -2% at 24.5%). Key swing factors include normalization in aircraft and capital goods orders, softer manufacturing PMI trends, and persistent high interest rates weighing on business investment. The closely matched probabilities in negative ranges reflect uncertainty around whether the April strength was a one-off or signals broader resilience in factory demand.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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