The EU's treaty framework, requiring unanimous or supermajority consent among member states for fundamental changes, combined with deep economic integration through the single market and eurozone, underpins traders' 98.9% implied probability against dissolution before 2027. Ongoing enlargement discussions, coordinated policy responses to external pressures, and routine institutional operations demonstrate continued cohesion rather than fragmentation. Recent initiatives on defense cooperation, trade, and regulation reflect active governance by EU bodies and national governments. Scenarios that could still shift odds include simultaneous formal exits by multiple large member states amid acute crises or unprecedented treaty renegotiations to repeal core founding documents, though such thresholds remain high and untriggered by current conditions through late 2026.