Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 96.5% "No" due to the European Union's entrenched institutional stability, with no member state invoking Article 50 since Brexit and the Multiannual Financial Framework secured through 2027 ensuring fiscal continuity. Recent developments, including DBRS Morningstar's AAA rating confirmation in April 2026 and the Commission's legislative priorities emphasizing competitiveness and resilience, underscore deepening economic interdependence via the single market and eurozone. Populist movements advocating Frexit or Italexit remain fringe, lacking parliamentary traction amid French political gridlock and German economic pressures that fall short of disintegration threats. Realistic shifts could arise from a sovereign debt cascade, major geopolitical escalation like Ukraine spillover, or an improbable binding referendum in a core state like France or Italy before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'UE si dissolve prima del 2027?
L'UE si dissolve prima del 2027?
Sì
$166,078 Vol.
$166,078 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$166,078 Vol.
$166,078 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 96.5% "No" due to the European Union's entrenched institutional stability, with no member state invoking Article 50 since Brexit and the Multiannual Financial Framework secured through 2027 ensuring fiscal continuity. Recent developments, including DBRS Morningstar's AAA rating confirmation in April 2026 and the Commission's legislative priorities emphasizing competitiveness and resilience, underscore deepening economic interdependence via the single market and eurozone. Populist movements advocating Frexit or Italexit remain fringe, lacking parliamentary traction amid French political gridlock and German economic pressures that fall short of disintegration threats. Realistic shifts could arise from a sovereign debt cascade, major geopolitical escalation like Ukraine spillover, or an improbable binding referendum in a core state like France or Italy before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
Volume
$166,078Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 96.5% "No" due to the European Union's entrenched institutional stability, with no member state invoking Article 50 since Brexit and the Multiannual Financial Framework secured through 2027 ensuring fiscal continuity. Recent developments, including DBRS Morningstar's AAA rating confirmation in April 2026 and the Commission's legislative priorities emphasizing competitiveness and resilience, underscore deepening economic interdependence via the single market and eurozone. Populist movements advocating Frexit or Italexit remain fringe, lacking parliamentary traction amid French political gridlock and German economic pressures that fall short of disintegration threats. Realistic shifts could arise from a sovereign debt cascade, major geopolitical escalation like Ukraine spillover, or an improbable binding referendum in a core state like France or Italy before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$166,078Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 96.5% "No" due to the European Union's entrenched institutional stability, with no member state invoking Article 50 since Brexit and the Multiannual Financial Framework secured through 2027 ensuring fiscal continuity. Recent developments, including DBRS Morningstar's AAA rating confirmation in April 2026 and the Commission's legislative priorities emphasizing competitiveness and resilience, underscore deepening economic interdependence via the single market and eurozone. Populist movements advocating Frexit or Italexit remain fringe, lacking parliamentary traction amid French political gridlock and German economic pressures that fall short of disintegration threats. Realistic shifts could arise from a sovereign debt cascade, major geopolitical escalation like Ukraine spillover, or an improbable binding referendum in a core state like France or Italy before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti