No active Article 50 notifications, scheduled referendums, or credible exit campaigns exist among the 27 EU member states as of mid-2026, underscoring the deterrent impact of Brexit's protracted negotiations and economic costs. Eurosceptic parties across France, Italy, and elsewhere have moderated or abandoned outright withdrawal platforms, while public polling shows limited support for departure amid deep economic integration and shared policy frameworks. Traders assign 96.5% probability to no exit by end-2026, reflecting this stable baseline. Plausible shifts could still arise from acute external shocks, such as abrupt US security disengagement prompting renegotiations, or domestic crises elevating fringe parties to power with sufficient parliamentary majorities to initiate formal processes within the narrow remaining window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQualsiasi paese si ritira dall'UE prima del 2027?
Qualsiasi paese si ritira dall'UE prima del 2027?
Sì
4% probabilità
$160,003 Vol.
$160,003 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
4% probabilità
$160,003 Vol.
$160,003 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No active Article 50 notifications, scheduled referendums, or credible exit campaigns exist among the 27 EU member states as of mid-2026, underscoring the deterrent impact of Brexit's protracted negotiations and economic costs. Eurosceptic parties across France, Italy, and elsewhere have moderated or abandoned outright withdrawal platforms, while public polling shows limited support for departure amid deep economic integration and shared policy frameworks. Traders assign 96.5% probability to no exit by end-2026, reflecting this stable baseline. Plausible shifts could still arise from acute external shocks, such as abrupt US security disengagement prompting renegotiations, or domestic crises elevating fringe parties to power with sufficient parliamentary majorities to initiate formal processes within the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
Volume
$160,003Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No active Article 50 notifications, scheduled referendums, or credible exit campaigns exist among the 27 EU member states as of mid-2026, underscoring the deterrent impact of Brexit's protracted negotiations and economic costs. Eurosceptic parties across France, Italy, and elsewhere have moderated or abandoned outright withdrawal platforms, while public polling shows limited support for departure amid deep economic integration and shared policy frameworks. Traders assign 96.5% probability to no exit by end-2026, reflecting this stable baseline. Plausible shifts could still arise from acute external shocks, such as abrupt US security disengagement prompting renegotiations, or domestic crises elevating fringe parties to power with sufficient parliamentary majorities to initiate formal processes within the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$160,003Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No active Article 50 notifications, scheduled referendums, or credible exit campaigns exist among the 27 EU member states as of mid-2026, underscoring the deterrent impact of Brexit's protracted negotiations and economic costs. Eurosceptic parties across France, Italy, and elsewhere have moderated or abandoned outright withdrawal platforms, while public polling shows limited support for departure amid deep economic integration and shared policy frameworks. Traders assign 96.5% probability to no exit by end-2026, reflecting this stable baseline. Plausible shifts could still arise from acute external shocks, such as abrupt US security disengagement prompting renegotiations, or domestic crises elevating fringe parties to power with sufficient parliamentary majorities to initiate formal processes within the narrow remaining window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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