Recent weak Eurozone GDP data and downward revisions to 2026 growth forecasts have anchored trader sentiment around the 1.0-2.0% band. Eurostat reported just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter expansion in Q1 2026, with year-on-year growth slowing to 0.8%, pressured by elevated energy costs amid Middle East tensions and subdued manufacturing momentum. Analyst projections have accordingly shifted lower, with several houses now targeting 0.8-1.1% for the full year, reflecting tighter financial conditions and lingering geopolitical risks. These developments have elevated the probability mass on sub-2% outcomes while leaving room for modest upside if domestic demand holds and energy prices stabilize. Key near-term catalysts include the May and June inflation releases and the next ECB policy decision, which will further shape market-implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato1.0-2.0% 70%
2.0-3.0% 10%
<0% 7.2%
4.0-5.0% 4.3%
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 gen 2027
<0%
13%
0-1.0%
39%
1.0-2.0%
70%
2.0-3.0%
10%
3.0-4.0%
21%
4.0-5.0%
4%
5.0-6.0%
3%
6.0-7.0%
1%
7.0%+
3%
1.0-2.0% 70%
2.0-3.0% 10%
<0% 7.2%
4.0-5.0% 4.3%
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 gen 2027
<0%
$792 Vol.
13%
0-1.0%
$636 Vol.
39%
1.0-2.0%
$1,484 Vol.
70%
2.0-3.0%
$638 Vol.
10%
3.0-4.0%
$567 Vol.
21%
4.0-5.0%
$1,540 Vol.
4%
5.0-6.0%
$631 Vol.
3%
6.0-7.0%
$1,323 Vol.
1%
7.0%+
$1,110 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent weak Eurozone GDP data and downward revisions to 2026 growth forecasts have anchored trader sentiment around the 1.0-2.0% band. Eurostat reported just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter expansion in Q1 2026, with year-on-year growth slowing to 0.8%, pressured by elevated energy costs amid Middle East tensions and subdued manufacturing momentum. Analyst projections have accordingly shifted lower, with several houses now targeting 0.8-1.1% for the full year, reflecting tighter financial conditions and lingering geopolitical risks. These developments have elevated the probability mass on sub-2% outcomes while leaving room for modest upside if domestic demand holds and energy prices stabilize. Key near-term catalysts include the May and June inflation releases and the next ECB policy decision, which will further shape market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$8,722Data di fine
31 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent weak Eurozone GDP data and downward revisions to 2026 growth forecasts have anchored trader sentiment around the 1.0-2.0% band. Eurostat reported just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter expansion in Q1 2026, with year-on-year growth slowing to 0.8%, pressured by elevated energy costs amid Middle East tensions and subdued manufacturing momentum. Analyst projections have accordingly shifted lower, with several houses now targeting 0.8-1.1% for the full year, reflecting tighter financial conditions and lingering geopolitical risks. These developments have elevated the probability mass on sub-2% outcomes while leaving room for modest upside if domestic demand holds and energy prices stabilize. Key near-term catalysts include the May and June inflation releases and the next ECB policy decision, which will further shape market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,722Data di fine
31 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent weak Eurozone GDP data and downward revisions to 2026 growth forecasts have anchored trader sentiment around the 1.0-2.0% band. Eurostat reported just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter expansion in Q1 2026, with year-on-year growth slowing to 0.8%, pressured by elevated energy costs amid Middle East tensions and subdued manufacturing momentum. Analyst projections have accordingly shifted lower, with several houses now targeting 0.8-1.1% for the full year, reflecting tighter financial conditions and lingering geopolitical risks. These developments have elevated the probability mass on sub-2% outcomes while leaving room for modest upside if domestic demand holds and energy prices stabilize. Key near-term catalysts include the May and June inflation releases and the next ECB policy decision, which will further shape market-implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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